Qualitative analysis of the risk forming factors on pre-contract phase of ship freight

Abstract

Here we discuss the problems associated with the assessment of the degree of compliance of the vessel to the technological and commercial properties of the upcoming ocean freights. The marine transport system has been considered; its key link is a vessel which interacts with the other elements of the system (the port, the cargo, the technologies of the vessel processing in ports, the marine navigation technologies, and others). The vessel is also an object of the charter contract, within which a range of the financial and economic indicators is determined (the value of the freight rate, the expenses for the port charges, fuel and lubricantion materials, the wages of the crew, the daily income for the sea passage or for the freight period etc.). One of the most important tasks of the ocean freight is the problem of formation (determination) of the freight rate. The main factors which affect its determination are the vessel speed, its carrying capacity and the propulsive output. The modern shipping tendency is characterized by the increase of the vessel speed; the higher the value of the carried cargo is, the greater the profit from the reduction of the terms of delivery will be. To solve such problems it is suggested to use the analytic hierarchy process (AHP) and the analytic network process (ANP). They are the mathematical tool of the systematic approach to the decision problem in the multi-criteria environment under the conditions of uncertainty and risk.