Pursuing the Early Voter: Does the Early Bird Get the Worm?

Abstract

ABSTRACT In the 2004 election, 30 states offered the option to vote before Election Day with no excuse (National Conference of State Legislators, 2004), up from 26 in 2002. For parties, interest groups, and campaigns that have begun early voting campaign efforts, have the efforts changed the composition of the electorate—or are early voters largely similar to Election Day voters? By examining two battleground states from the 2002 midterm election in which the partisan, interest group, and campaign efforts were highly competitive, we are able to analyze this question. Drawing upon a unique panel survey including early, absentee, and Election Day voters in the 2002 Arkansas and Missouri midterm elections, we are able to analyze demographic and attitudinal information about voters, as well as issue preference and vote certainty over time. We show that early voters and Election Day voters are largely similar. We also show that while there is weak evidence that issue preference of early voters may change over time, vote choice is firm. Thus, we conclude that early voting campaigns may have limited effectiveness in mobilizing new voters or persuading voters to change their minds.