Abstract

Abstract Background Pulmonary vein isolation (PVI) has become an essential therapeutic approach for managing paroxysmal and persistent atrial fibrillation. Besides the fact its application increases, a substantial proportion of patients will suffer from arrhythmia recurrence. Objectives This study aims to determine the clinical and echocardiographic factors that predict fibrillation recurrence following pulmonary vein isolation. Methods In this prospective, multicenter study carried out across 14 medical centers in Israel, we included a cohort of 1002 patients who underwent pulmonary vein isolation from 2019 to 2022. The study involved an assessment of patients' baseline characteristics, electrocardiographic and echocardiographic data, laboratory results, details of the procedure, and their clinical outcomes. We monitored these clinical outcomes for one year after the ablation procedure, focusing mainly on the recurrence of atrial fibrillation, which was verified using electrocardiographic evidence during the post-blanking period. A multivariable analysis revealed the clinical and echocardiographic predictors for atrial fibrillation recurrence post-PVI. Results Our study evaluated 1002 patients with an average age of 64.4 ±11.3 years, including 37.5% females (376 patients). The cohort predominantly, about two-thirds, had paroxysmal AFIB, with an average arrythmia duration of 4.1 years. Frequent pre-existing conditions included ischemic heart disease in 17.3% and congestive heart failure in 13.8% of the patients. Additionally, diabetes was present in a quarter of the cohort, with 9% having a prior cerebrovascular event. The median LVEF was 60 (IQR 53-60), and the average left atrial diameter was 42.6 mm±8.8. The median pulmonary artery pressure was noted at 31 (IQR 25-38), with 13% of patients exhibiting elevated levels above 45 mmHg. Within the first year after the ablation, 11.7% of patients experienced AFIB recurrence in the post-blanking period. Our multivariate COX analysis established clinical and echocardiographic models for predicting post-PVI AFIB recurrence. Gender was a significant predictor, with women showing a higher recurrence rate (HR 1.85, 95% CI 1.29-2.7, P<0.01), in addition to persistent AFIB and a non-sinus rhythm at the time of the procedure. Echocardiographic predictors of recurrence included a left atrial diameter greater than 40 mm (HR 2.16, 95% CI 1.3-3.6, P<0.01) and pulmonary hypertension, notably when pulmonary artery pressure exceeded 55 mmHg, which correlated with almost a fourfold increase in AFIB recurrence risk within the first-year post-procedure (HR 4.25, 95% CI 1.57-11.5, P<0.01). Conclusions Pulmonary hypertension, especially with pulmonary artery pressure above 55 mmHg, significantly elevates the risk of atrial fibrillation recurrence post-pulmonary vein isolation, underscoring its importance in patient prognosis and management.

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