Abstract
In this study, a real-time volcanic ash plume prediction by the PUFF system was applied to the Sakurajima volcano (which erupted at 17:24 Japan Standard Time (JST) on 8 November 2019), using the direct observation of the multi-parameter (MP) radar data installed at the Sakurajima Volcano Research Center. The MP radar showed a plume height of 5500 m a.s.l. around the volcano. The height was higher than the 4000 m by the PUFF system, but was lower than the observational report of 6500 m by the Japan Meteorological Agency in Kagoshima. In this study, ash particles by the MP radar observation were assimilated to the running PUFF system operated by the real-time emission rate and plume height, since the radar provides accurate plume height. According to the simulation results, the model prediction has been improved in the shape of the ash cloud with accurate plume top by the new MP radar observation. The plume top is corrected from 4000 m to 5500 m a.s.l., and the three-dimensional (3D) ash dispersal agrees with the observation. It was demonstrated by this study that the direct observation of MP radar obviously improved the model prediction, and enhanced the reliability of the prediction model.
Highlights
Explosive volcanic eruption is one of the major unavoidable natural disasters in human society.Modern observational systems and urgent numerical simulations of airborne ashes are desirable tools to prevent the natural hazard of volcanic eruptions
By combining the real-time discharge rate with the PUFF model, we developed a new PUFF system to predict the total amount of ash fallout accumulated over a wide area immediately after the eruption [16]
By comparing the 3D distributions and temporal variation of airborne ash plume before and after the data assimilation of the MP radar data, we can assess the improvement of the new PUFF model predictions
Summary
Explosive volcanic eruption is one of the major unavoidable natural disasters in human society. The PUFF model was developed in 1990 to simulate the airborne ash plume from Redoubt volcano using a real-time upper air weather data available by the internet link in early time (e.g., [1,5,6]). Developed a method for real-time estimation of emission of volcanic ash from the source based on the long-term records of the rich observational network around the Sakurajima volcano. Using those real-time observations, the volcanic ash emission was expressed by linear combinations of seismic amplitude and ground deformation. By comparing the 3D distributions and temporal variation of airborne ash plume before and after the data assimilation of the MP radar data, we can assess the improvement of the new PUFF model predictions
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