Published Estimates of Oil Reserves Do Not Influence Us Doe/Eia Oil Production Forecasts. World Oil Reserves to Increase through Next Two Decades?

Abstract

Non-OPEC oil reserves worldwide have an R/P ratio of 15. In the USA, the ratio is near 10; a figure stated for much of the last century. The US DOE/EIA world oil production forecasts given in Table 1 ignore the published forecasts of oil reserves. The naive statement of the position for the USA is that the presently known oil reserves will have been used by 2010. In 2010, US production is forecast to be a little less than 9 million b/d and in 2020 is forecast to be a little over 9 million b/d. The US DOE/EIA is clearly confident that there will be oil reserves available to support world oil production of 87.7 million b/d in 2005; 96.6 million b/d in 2021; 105.6 million b/d in 2015 and 15.4 million b/d in 2020. Hence real at economic world oil reserves are forecast to increase steadily through the next two decades.