Public trust in the Government to control the spread of COVID-19 in England after the first wave-a longitudinal analysis.

Abstract

To control the spread of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19), governments are increasingly relying on the public to voluntarily manage risk. Effectiveness is likely to rely in part on how much the public trusts the Government's response. We examined the English public's trust in the Conservative Government to control the spread of COVID-19 after the initial 'crisis' period. We analyzed eight rounds of a longitudinal survey of 1899 smartphone users aged 18-79 in England between October 2020 and December 2021. We fitted a random-effects logit model to identify personal characteristics and opinions associated with trust in the Conservative Government to control the spread of COVID-19. Trust was lowest in January 2021 (28%) and highest in March 2021 (44%). Being older, having lower educational attainment and aligning with the Conservative Party were predictors of higher levels of trust. Conversely, being less deprived, reporting that Government communications were not clear and considering that the measures taken by the Government went too far or not far enough were predictors of being less likely to report a great deal or a fair amount of trust in the Government to control the pandemic. Trust in the Government's response was found to be low throughout the study. Our findings suggest that there may be scope to avoid losing trust by aligning Government actions more closely with scientific advice and public opinion, and through clearer public health messaging. However, it remains unclear whether and how higher trust in the Government's response would increase compliance with Government advice.