Public health emergencies and school attendance: What the Ebola crisis can teach us about the coming post-COVID education landscape

Abstract

Using nine Demographic and Health Surveys for the three West African countries affected by the 2013−16 Ebola epidemic, this study applies a district-level interrupted time series (ITS) design to explore the longer-term impacts of the epidemic on school attendance. It shows that, about three to four years after the crisis, attendance has returned to the long-term trend regardless of the difference in Ebola virus disease prevalence among districts. The study also shows no discernable effect on the attendance trends for children from vulnerable backgrounds. However, it suggests further areas for examination and study. This includes migration patterns, the investment of emergency relief and overseas development aid between regions, the possible role of orphan status and early marriage (for girls) as vectors for the effect of the EVD crisis on educational outcomes and learnings losses for children who were out of school for up to an entire school year.