Consequences of secondary school closures for learning in South Africa: Evidence from university application and enrolment data

Abstract

We investigate the consequences of pandemic-related school closures on twelfth grade learning, leveraging university application and enrolment data from a selective public university in South Africa. Using difference-in-difference estimation strategies, we find suggestive evidence of learning losses in the school-leaving qualification in 2020, concentrated among lower achieving applicants. We also find a growing achievement gap between lower and higher performing applicants in mathematics. Losses are further reflected in a lower Grade Point Average among 2020 high school graduates who enrolled in university in 2021, compared to those who enrolled in 2021 but graduated high school before 2020.