Public capital and asset prices: Time-series evidence from Japan

Abstract

This research examines the effects of public infrastructure capital on asset prices in Japan over the period 1983:Q1–2008:Q4. The empirical results show that public infrastructure capital does not forecast stock returns and total factor productivity by the Granger causality test, and the contribution of public investment to stock returns is small based on variance decomposition using the Factor-Augmented vector autoregressive model. Our empirical evidence on the post high-growth era in Japan suggests that public infrastructure investment cannot be expected to play a key role in revitalizing capital markets.