PSHA for Broad-Band Strong Ground-Motion Hazards in the Saronikos Gulf, Greece, from Potential Earthquake with Synthetic Ground Motions

Abstract

We perform a probabilistic seismic hazard analysis (PSHA) for broad-band strong ground motion within the Saronikos Gulf region, Greece, from potential earthquakes along the 30 km long Aigina fault in the northern part of the Gulf. We perform the PSHA utilizing empirical Green’s functions (EGFs) merged with synthetic Green’s functions (SGFs) along with models of finite rupture in place of standard “attenuation relations.” Our approach considers all significant magnitudes for PSHA and full broadband ground motion simulations. Calculations are source and site specific, and could reduce uncertainties in estimating standard engineering parameters. We use a range of rupture scenarios for all significant magnitude earthquakes along the fault. The hazard calculation is for frequencies 0.0– 15.0 Hz. Recordings of small earthquakes from an onshore/offshore local seismic array were used as EGFs for frequencies of 1.5–15.0 Hz, the finite difference code E3D was utilized to synthesize SGFs for frequencies 0.0–1.5 Hz, and an algorithm for merging the EGFs with SGFs was developed. The full-waveform calculations are important for non-linear dynamic analysis of structures in the coastal zone and potential hazard to long period structures. Results of proposed PSHA identify 2%, 10%, and 50% hazard at the selected sites of Saronikos Gulf.Finally, we compare our PSHA results to those obtained by standard practice which involves prediction equations (GMPEs) recently developed in the Next Generation Attenuation (NGA) project and empirical predictive attenuation relations proposed for Greece. We believe that differences with the NGA results are due to site- and source-specific information utilized in this study, and incorporation of this information may significantly reduce the uncertainty in seismic hazard calculations.