Pseudo Global Warming Sensitivity Experiments of Subtropical Cyclone Anita (2010) Under RCP 8.5 Scenario

Abstract

AbstractThe potential changes in the future cyclone activities around the world are important topics of discussion and research across the socio‐economic spectrum. This study investigated the subtropical cyclone (SC) Anita (2010) in the South Atlantic Ocean (SAO) under the extreme future pathway scenario RCP8.5. The study focused on thermodynamic and other dynamical changes of Anita by analyzing the storms intensity change under future background conditions. Ensemble simulations considering a combination of various physical schemes and initial conditions were carried out by using Advanced Research Weather Research and Forecasting (ARW‐WRF). The historical case runs showed agreement with the objective analysis, meeting the criteria that defines a SC. The future results show that SC Anita will become more intense and likely transition into a tropical cyclone when only considering changes in the sea surface temperature (SST). Results that considered changes both in SST and air temperature (AT) show a reduction in cyclone surface wind velocities and an increase in the minimum sea level pressure (relative to SST only). The results considering a combination of environmental changes such as SST, AT, relative humidity, geopotential height, and wind velocity show a slight increase in the cyclone intensity. These results suggest that the future conditions are favorable for the development of SCs in the SAO. In addition, the possibility for SCs to transition into tropical cyclones will have a higher occurrence of probability, leading to potentially more severe cyclone associated consequences in the SAO region.