Psephological Advancements and Pitfalls of Political Opinion Polls in India
Political opinion polls in India offer comprehensive insights into electoral participation, ideological orientations, and democratic values, serving as valuable tools for understanding voting behavior and testing electoral theories. Despite a shift toward electoral prophecy in media coverage, these surveys remain crucial for capturing subaltern perspectives and broadening democratic understanding.
Abstract Political opinion polls in India are holistic snapshots in time that divulge deep dive information on electoral participation, ideological orientation and self-efficacy of the electorate and faith in core democratic values. The popularity of election surveys stems from the political socialization and crystal ball gazing curiosity of the citizens to foresee the outcomes of the hustings before the pronouncement of formal results. The opinion polls provide crucial data on voting behaviour and attitudes, testing theories of electoral politics and domain knowledge production. The obsession of the Indian media with political forecasting has shifted the focus from psephology to electoral prophecy, but it continues to furnish the best telescopic view of elections based on the feedback of the electorate. The ascertainment of subaltern opinion by surveys not only broadens the contours of understanding electoral democracy, but also provides an empirical alternative to elitist viewpoint of competitive politics in India.
- Dissertation
2
- 10.26686/wgtn.17057933
- Jan 1, 2016
<p>Chinese political participation is low by comparison with other migrant and ethnic groups despite high socioeconomic status. This suggests that other barriers to participation are present among this group. This study examines how pre- and post-migration political socialisation affect the electoral participation of Chinese in New Zealand. Fifteen one-on-one, in-depth interviews allowed me to consider the relationship between both length of residence and socialisation in a democratic versus non-democratic regime and electoral participation among this sample. In this case, analysis of each participant’s migration and political participation experiences revealed no correlation between either length of residence and socialisation in a democratic versus non-democratic regime and electoral participation, although it highlighted the significance of demographic factors such as age and life-cycle, and social capital and political interest for electoral participation. Few studies have focused on Chinese migrant political participation specifically in New Zealand and even fewer on the subject of Chinese electoral participation. However, understanding what drives and inhibits electoral participation among this group is both important for the development of New Zealand’s Asia-Pacific identity and ultimately as an indicator of the health of democracy in New Zealand.</p>
- Dissertation
1
- 10.26686/wgtn.17057933.v1
- Jan 1, 2016
<p>Chinese political participation is low by comparison with other migrant and ethnic groups despite high socioeconomic status. This suggests that other barriers to participation are present among this group. This study examines how pre- and post-migration political socialisation affect the electoral participation of Chinese in New Zealand. Fifteen one-on-one, in-depth interviews allowed me to consider the relationship between both length of residence and socialisation in a democratic versus non-democratic regime and electoral participation among this sample. In this case, analysis of each participant’s migration and political participation experiences revealed no correlation between either length of residence and socialisation in a democratic versus non-democratic regime and electoral participation, although it highlighted the significance of demographic factors such as age and life-cycle, and social capital and political interest for electoral participation. Few studies have focused on Chinese migrant political participation specifically in New Zealand and even fewer on the subject of Chinese electoral participation. However, understanding what drives and inhibits electoral participation among this group is both important for the development of New Zealand’s Asia-Pacific identity and ultimately as an indicator of the health of democracy in New Zealand.</p>
- Research Article
- 10.22373/sjhk.v8i3.24050
- Aug 24, 2024
- Samarah: Jurnal Hukum Keluarga dan Hukum Islam
This article discusses women and family-based voter education strategies to increase community participation in regional elections in Buton, Southeast Sulawesi, Indonesia. Voter education plays an important role in strengthening democracy and generating public interest, then women and families are important segments in the context of political participation in Indonesia. This study uses qualitative methods, analyzed with political participation theory. Data was collected by means of document study and interviews. The documents analyzed refer to articles, books, scientific reports and various studies related to the discussion, while the informants interviewed are women voters and their families. This study concludes that as an election organizer, the KPU at the district/city level can adopt the concept of a social learning framework to observe the configuration and dynamics in organizing elections. Social learning involves commissioners and the public in learning from peers, first-time voters, and available resources. Political education can also strengthen democratization efforts and overcome negative perceptions of politics. Voter education plans must consider the development of autonomy, open-mindedness, efficiency, transparency, and popular or non-formal education. To increase community participation in elections, women and their families must maximize their role as segments of voters who are close to the community. According to political participation theory, one effective strategy to increase political participation is elections that involve women and families so that people's voices can be meaningful in building democracy.
- Research Article
17
- 10.1057/ap.2014.26
- Sep 5, 2014
- Acta Politica
This study investigates whether immigration affects the extent to which children of migrants are likelier to vote if their parents vote (and vice versa). It combines intergenerational transmission theories with migrant political participation theories. Existing studies of migration and intergenerational transmission mainly focus on (Latino) immigrants in the United States and have not assessed migration’s true impact through comparison with non-migrants from the origin society. This study analyses unique data on Turkey-Europe migration, which include migrant and non-migrant child-parent dyads, applying logistic regression analysis. The results show a clear ‘intrahousehold similarity in electoral participation’ among migrant dyads in European national elections, which is weaker (but present) among the non-migrant dyads in Turkey. Though migration thus seems to strengthen transmission, the effect is only present if the child grew up in Europe, suggesting that children also stimulate their parents’ political engagement. Additionally, results show that the electoral participation of parents in the Turkish elections is not associated with the electoral participation of the adult children in the European national elections. Taken together, the analyses indicate that the underlying mechanism of transmission is not just one of (two-way) political socialization; ‘household mobilization’ also plays an important role.
- Research Article
7
- 10.1080/01439685.2010.505020
- Sep 1, 2010
- Historical Journal of Film, Radio and Television
In studies of the Australian press, a wide range of American influences—on news genres, on notions of newsworthiness and presentation, and on the language in which stories are written—has been larg...
- Research Article
3
- 10.22225/sintesa.10.2.1531.60-64
- Jan 1, 2019
The high level of community participation in elections in reality does not merely indicate a high level of democracy, because of the emergence of the phenomenon of mobilized participation. The aims of this research is to examine the communication strategy of General Election Commission to increase participants in participating on regional head election of Gianyar Regency. The role of the General Election Commission (KPU), which is the institution that leads the way in general elections in Indonesia, is very much needed to carry out a communication strategies in the process of socialization to the public and the KPU must also understand what the people want. This research was conducted at the office of the general election commission of Gianyar Regency. The results of this study indicate that the implementation of the communication strategy of the General Election Commission to increase political participation in the election of regional heads of Gianyar Regency can be said to be effective because the percentage of community participation increased from the previous period which reached 81%. In addition, the community has begun to understand how to become smart voters through information, information and motivation delivered by the KPU that is right on target.
- Research Article
58
- 10.1353/sor.2003.0050
- Mar 1, 2003
- Social Research: An International Quarterly
IT was a hot summer afternoon in the south Indian city of Secunderabad , where I did my fieldwork among hijras, better known as India’s “third sex” (Nanda, 1999) or “eunuch-transvestites” (Vyas and Shingala, 1987). I was sitting near the railway station with Sujata, one of my hijra friends and talking about her future as well as the future of hijras more generally, when she said proudly, “Within this kaliyug [current cosmic period], hijras will become kings and rule the world. That is what [the Hindu god] Rama decreed thousands of years ago when he blessed us.” “When is that time going to come?” I asked. “That time will come very soon. You see, that time will come very soon,” Sujata replied. Perhaps “that time” in Sujata’s reckoning is now. Although hijras have not become kings, they are rapidly gaining visibility in SOCIAL RESEARCH, Vol. 70, No. 1 (Spring 2003) “Men” Who Would Be Kings: Celibacy, Emasculation, and the Re-Production of Hijras in Contemporary Indian Politics* GAYATRI REDDY *Research for parts of this paper were made possible by grants from the National Science Foundation and the Association for Women in Science. Earlier versions of the article were presented at the University of Illinois, Chicago; University of Iowa; American Anthropological Association meetings in Washington, D.C.; and the Society for the Anthropology of Religion meetings in Cleveland, Ohio. Comments and questions from those audiences were helpful in developing the article. Comments are also gratefully acknowledged from Sita Reddy, Bruce Knauft, Vijayendra Rao, and Serena Nanda, as well as from the journal editors and reviewers of this article at Social Research. the South Asian political sphere. For the first time in Indian politics , hijras are standing for and winning election to local, state, and even national office, and are being actively courted by mainstream political parties for these positions. And they are entering the public imagination as hijras, explicitly highlighting their identity as gender-neutral, asexual figures. As one of their campaign slogans reiterated, “You don’t need genitals for politics; you need brains and integrity” (Karp, 1998). Apparently, as the newspapers declared, hijras are “the new emerging force in Indian politics” (Hindustan Times, 2000), heralding the “reign of the middle order” (Outlook, 2000) or, as my hijra friend Sujata noted, a new, divinely ordained era of the Hijra Rajya (kingdom). How is this recent event of significance in analyzing marginalized minorities? The answer, as anyone familiar with these metonymic figures of Indian “sexual difference” would assert, is that hijras have long been social pariahs in India, stigmatized explicitly on the basis of their apparently transgressive gender identification and their location beyond the domain of procreative sexuality.1 Their recent election to office is significant because it heralds a “new chapter of enfranchisement in the history of India’s eunuchs,” as one news columnist noted (Jacinto, 2000). In this article, I explore hijras’ emerging position as the “third wave” (Mishra, 2000)—their path from pariah to model minority as it were—in the Indian political landscape, and the potential for their electoral participation and subsequent victory to reformulate not only their place in society but also prevailing constructions of citizenship, sexuality, and politics in India. While I am clearly not disputing the emancipatory potential of hijras’ political gains in recent elections, I am questioning the automatically presumed relationship between hijra marginalization and their social emancipation by virtue of electoral participation . To gain political status, hijras explicitly highlight their social marginality on the basis of sexuality, religion, and kinship. But as I argue in this paper, it is these very mobilizations of marginality that, far from remaking normative institutions, reinscribe 164 SOCIAL RESEARCH their hegemonic importance, thereby undercutting hijras’ emancipatory and subversive potential and allowing for their incorporation within existing frameworks of political and moral authority. In other words, this paper is a cautionary note, arguing that hijras apparent increase in political visibility and social status could be illusory and could ultimately serve to remarginalize them within the new social order. In the end, if, as their campaign slogan contends , “you don’t need genitals for politics,” neither it would seem, does the permissible lack of genitals herald a radically...
- Research Article
1
- 10.57235/qistina.v3i2.4255
- Nov 30, 2024
- QISTINA: Jurnal Multidisiplin Indonesia
Simultaneous village head elections (PKDS) are a form of democracy implemented in Indonesia, where all villages in a region simultaneously conduct elections for village heads at the same time. This research utilizes a normative juridical approach by referring to the legislation governing PKDS. The analysis shows that the implementation of PKDS is based on the principles of democracy and village autonomy regulated by the applicable laws. Clear and precise regulations regarding the stages, procedures, and mechanisms of PKDS provide a strong foundation for the implementation of this process. However, there are several challenges including coordination among relevant institutions, public awareness, understanding, and participation in the election process, as well as fairness in the treatment of candidates and voters. This study provides recommendations including enhancing socialization and education to emphasize the importance of public participation in village head elections, improving coordination among relevant institutions, and strengthening oversight to ensure fairness and transparency in the election process. The findings of this research are expected to serve as a reference for the government and stakeholders in enhancing the effectiveness and integrity of PKDS in the future.
- Book Chapter
27
- 10.4324/9780203702284-2
- Nov 10, 2017
Non-Western societies have frequently and rightly complained that Western political theory is ethnocentric and has a limited explanatory power when applied outside the West. One would have thought that they would therefore produce both a well-considered critique of its central categories and modes of inquiry, and an original body of ideas capable of illuminating their political experiences. Surprising as it may seem, this is not the case. No contemporary non-Western society, not even Japan, has produced much original political theory. Reasons for the underdevelopment of political theory vary from country to country. In the erstwhile Communist countries, intellectual creativity was stifled by ideological dogma and political repression. In the case of Japan such factors as the lack of a long-established tradition of political thought, the dominance of the practical impulse and the absence of serious political disagreements seem to have played an important part. In this chapter the author intends to concentrate on post-independence India, and to explore why a free and lively society with a rich tradition of philosophical inquiry has not thrown up much original political theory.
- Research Article
28
- 10.1177/0262728016675529
- Jan 30, 2017
- South Asia Research
The recent participation levels of women in formal politics in India reveal two positives that augur well. First, the upsurge among women voters that started in the 1990s reached the highest female turnout ever, so far, in the 2014 Lok Sabha elections. Second, women’s participation in high-voltage election campaigns during the 2014 general elections also showed a substantial increase. However, the continued under-representation of women in legislative bodies and within the rank and file of political parties offsets the momentous gains made in the people-driven feminisation of electoral politics in India. Within a brief historical context identifying the beginnings of women’s electoral participation in India, the article presents a time series analysis of women’s voting patterns, showing that there have never been concerted efforts by political parties to mobilise female voters on any issue concerning women in either national or state level elections. Promises by political parties in their manifestos on gender issues remain clichéd and are conveniently forgotten after the hustings. India’s failure to pass the Women’s Reservation Bill is presented as the most telling testimony about lack of seriousness among political parties in taking better account of women’s increasing electoral participation.
- Research Article
- 10.46609/ijsser.2025.v10i05.008
- Jan 1, 2025
- International Journal of Social Science and Economic Research
Women’s participation at all levels of politics is essential to achieve true democracy. The present paper gives an overview of the Indian general elections of 2004, 2009, 2014 and 2019 to understand the actual state of women’s participation in electoral politics in India. The paper begins with a brief overview of the constitutional provisions and initiatives that have been implemented post - independence to increase the political representation of women including the monumental 73rd and 74th constitutional amendments. Importance of recently passed women’s reservation bill “Nari Shakti Vandan Adhiniyam, 2023” is also discussed. The paper analyses women’s participation in the Indian general elections of 2004, 2009, 2014 and 2019 as voters, as contestants and their representation in parliament. Suggestions have been given in the paper to increase women’s participation in politics. Findings from the study reveal that there is steady progress in women’s electoral participation in India in recent years, still more women are needed to make India a truly representative democracy.
- Research Article
- 10.71182/aijmr.2512.0302.2002
- Jan 16, 2026
- ANALISTA International Journal of Multidisciplinary Research
dentity Politics plays a significant role in shaping political dynamics in diverse societies like India. Identity politics has become a prominent subject of politics and political activities all over the world today. Identity politics, as an aspect of movements and struggles for recognition, is an important part of the contemporary period. The paper contains a detailed explication of Major Turning Episodes of Identity Politics in Post-Independent India and its development process through an analytical overview in present scenario. The present paper tries to explain how different approaches define the process of identity formation. This research paper explores the profound impact of identity politics on the socio-political landscape of post- independent India. Since gaining independence in 1947, India has navigated the complex terrain of identity politics, which has significantly influenced its democratic process, governance, social harmony, and development. By examining the theoretical framework, historical context, key developments, and the multifaceted outcomes of identity politics, this study aims to provide a comprehensive understanding of its role and repercussions in contemporary Indian society. This research paper explores how identity politics in terms of caste, religion, language, and ethnicity created a challenge to unity and integrity in post-independent India. Objectives:The primary objective of this paper is to analyze how India's post-independence identity has been shaped by caste, religion, language, and ethnicity. It proposes a conceptual framework for understanding identity politics in India. It analyses major turning episodes that reshaped identity politics. Also, it investigates contemporary trends and transformations in identity politics. Methodology:The study uses a qualitative, historical-analytical research design to investigate how significant episodes of identity politics impacted post-independence India. Identity politics entails socio-political processes, collective mobilization, and narrative production, which necessitate interpretive analysis rather than numerical measurement. The study is descriptive, interpretative, and contextual. Since the topic is historical and socio-political, secondary sources constitute the primary data base. In this paper, secondary data is generally taken as a source from various books, research papers, articles, newspapers, and government reports. In this paper, identify and analyze the existing literature based on the diversity of Indian identity issue since independence. For secondary sources, purposive sampling is used. Sources are selected based on the relevance to identity politics, credibility and scholarly depth, coverage of different ideological perspectives and representation of major identity categories like caste, religion, region, language, ethnicity, gender etc., Data is analyzed thematically by identifying recurring patterns relating to identity formation, mobilization strategies, State response, electoral consequences, legal/constitutional shifts, socio-economic outcomes etc., Key turning episodes may include reorganization of states on linguistic lines (1956), mandal commission and OBC mobilization (1990), rise of Hindutva and Ram Janmabhoomi movement, Assam Movement and ethnic assertions, Dalit movements and the BSP’s rise etc., Political speeches, media framing, and parliamentary debates are examined to understand how identity categories were constructed and politically activated.
- Research Article
20
- 10.1111/1467-8675.12662
- Mar 1, 2023
- Constellations
Deliberative democracy and the digital public sphere: Asymmetrical fragmentation as a political not a technological problem
- Research Article
2
- 10.20901/an.18.09
- Dec 13, 2021
- Anali Hrvatskog politološkog društva
The paper presents the results of a survey that assessed the impact of informal and formal agents of the political socialization (PS) process on a sample of students enrolled at the University of Rijeka (N = 635). The correlation between the participants' ideological self-identification (PIS) and the assessed ideological orientation of their parents (PIO) was analyzed. Students believe that no agent of socialization has even moderately influenced the formation of their political views and assess the weakest influence of the formal PS agent – teachers in primary and secondary schools. The participants believe that parents have influenced their political attitudes more than other agents, but assess this influence on average as weak, regardless of whether they place their parents in the same or different positions on the ideological orientation (IO) scale. Left- and right-oriented participants admit a somewhat stronger influence of their parents' informal PS than those who rank themselves in the center. Statistically significant correlations between PIS and the perceived PIO were obtained. A small share of participants does not perceive a similarity between their own and their parents' IO and there is a negligible share of those who place their parents in diametrically opposed positions on the scale. The participants who have a greater interest in politics and those from a more politically stimulating environment are more inclined to move away from the political center and their parents' IO. Concordance between family IOs increases with the perception of better relationships with parents.
- Research Article
7
- 10.1111/1468-4446.13039
- Jun 6, 2023
- The British Journal of Sociology
Previous studies examine how unemployment affects socio-political behaviour, but this literature has scarcely focused on the role of the life-course. Integrating the frameworks of unemployment scarring and political socialisation, we posit that unemployment experiences, or scars, undermine electoral participation, and that this is exacerbated at younger ages. We test these hypotheses relying on the British Household Panel Survey and Understanding Society datasets (1991-2020), employing panel data analysis approaches as Propensity Score Matching, Individual Fixed Effects, and Individual Fixed Effects with Individual Slopes. Results suggest that unemployment experiences depress electoral participation in the UK, with effect sizes around -5% of a Standard Deviation in turnout. However, this effect varies powerfully by age: the impact of unemployment on electoral participation is stronger at younger ages (-21% SD at age 20), and weaker to not significant after age 35. This is robust across the three main approaches and several robustness checks. Further analyses show that the first unemployment spell matters the most for electoral participation, and that for individuals under 35, there is a scar effect lasting up to 5years after the first unemployment spell. The life-course emerges as central to better understand the relationship between labour market hardships and socio-political behaviour.