Abstract

Competitive societal systems by necessity rely on imperfect proxy measures. For instance, profit is used to measure value to consumers, patient volumes to measure hospital performance, or the journal impact factor to measure scientific value. While there are numerous reasons why proxies will deviate from the underlying societal goals, they will nevertheless determine the selection of cultural practices and guide individual decisions. These considerations suggest that the study of proxy-based competition requires the integration of cultural evolution theory and economics or decision theory. Here, we attempt such an integration in two ways. First, we describe an agent-based simulation model, combining methods and insights from these disciplines. The model suggests that an individual intrinsic incentive can constrain a cultural evolutionary pressure, which would otherwise enforce fully proxy-oriented practices. The emergent outcome is distinct from that with either the isolated economic or evolutionary mechanism. It reflects what we term lock-in, where competitive pressure can undermine the ability of agents to pursue the shared social goal. Second, we elaborate the broader context, outlining the system-theoretic foundations as well as some philosophical and practical implications, towards a broader theory. Overall, we suggest such a theory may offer an explanatory and predictive framework for diverse subjects, ranging from scientific replicability to climate inaction, and outlining strategies for diagnosis and mitigation.

Highlights

  • The term proxyeconomics is meant to suggest the proxy as a useful focus point in the theoretical and empirical investigation of proxy-based competition

  • Cultural evolution is based on an imperfect proxy of the actual goal of the competitive system

  • Outcomes for the shared goal can be improved by (i) increasing the information captured in the proxy, or (ii) promoting the strength of the intrinsic incentive towards the societal goal

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Summary

Competitive societal systems

Modern information-driven societies increasingly rely on competitive systems and the proxy measures they require. We argue that an understanding of proxy-based competition requires synthesizing economic approaches with insights and methods from cultural evolutionary theory [28,29,30]. This requires confronting incongruent methodological assumptions between the two disciplines [31]. While the economic decision model allows for individual agency and an individual motivation towards a shared social goal, the cultural evolution mechanism plays out proxy-based selection at the system level. The resulting model describes a potential mechanism underlying system lock-in, and allows to explore its determinants and implications Both the emergent dynamics and equilibrium outcomes are distinct from those resulting from either the economic or evolutionary mechanism alone. Readers more interested in the broader theory and its potential social, political or ethical implications may want to focus on §§1, 3 and 4

Why proxyeconomics?
The proxy
The goal
Why proxy and goal differ
The proxy as focus point of theoretical and empirical inquiry
Cultural evolution
Model rationale and questions
The practice space—proxy fidelity to the goal
Proxy-based competition
Model description
Model time course
Economic decision phase: multitasking
Economic decision phase: competition as incentive
Economic decision phase: effort choice heuristic
Evolution phase
Implementation and parameter choice
Model results
Model discussion
Multitasking and moral hazard
Agent-based contest algorithm
The evolution towards bad practices
Implications for mitigating proxy-induced corruption
Model conclusion
General discussion
Complex systems perspective
Optimization perspective
Cultural evolution perspective
Future directions
Epistemological implications
Psychological perspective
Ethical implications
Sociological perspective
Political implications
Proxyeconomics across scales: considering markets
Diagnosis and mitigation
Findings
Conclusion
Full Text
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