Protrusive influence of climate change on the ecological niche of endemic brown mongoose (Herpestes fuscus fuscus): a MaxEnt approach from Western Ghats, India

Abstract

Climate change and its effects on natural surroundings primarily affect the small mammals, especially the habitat specialists. Herpestes fuscus fuscus is an endemic small mammal confined to the high altitudes of Western Ghats (WG). Global warming and the latent increase in temperature with unprecedented variations in the climate have a potential hazard for the endurance of these subtle species. We selected H.f. fuscus as a model species for niche modeling to predict the impact of climate change on the distribution pattern using MaxEnt. We assessed the appropriation in present and future climatic situations to comprehend the niche loss. The best fit model was decided based on the AUC (0.991) and TSS (0.949) which indicates the robustness in our model. Our outcomes recommend an anticipated decrease in the extremity of the high potential territory of 20%, 18%, and 55% in RCP 4.5, 6.0, and 8.5 respectively. The influencing component of the H.f. fuscus niche was the isothermality, precipitation of the coldest quarter, and the elevation. The model likewise predicted the impact may be high towards the northern side, the Nilgiri hill complex, than the southern region, the Anamalai, Periyar and Agasthyamalai complex. Convenient preservation measures are required to minimize the effect of climate change in the high altitude mammalian network. Our results inform managers to make a fitting move by looking at the appropriate example of this species to climatic change. We look for a prompt and broad consideration towards the conservation of the territories of this lesser-known subtle species and their future protection.