Global warming and vector-borne disease

Abstract

Paul Reiter1Reiter P Global-warming and vector-borne disease in temperate regions and at high altitude.Lancet. 1998; 351: 839-840Summary Full Text Full Text PDF PubMed Scopus (55) Google Scholar incorrectly quotes me as making “adamant” claims that global warming has already caused malaria, dengue, and yellow fever to invade higher latitudes in the temperate regions and high altitudes in the tropics. Reiter's statement seems to be based on a misquote from a Lancet news article, in which I state, “there are some early signs of malaria and other vector-borne diseases being experienced at higher altitudes than was previously the case”.2McCurry J Physicians add their warnings to Kyoto summit.Lancet. 1997; 350: 1825Summary Full Text Full Text PDF Google Scholar I made no comment about higher latitudes in temperate countries, where in most cases public health infrastructure is likely to be adequate to prevent substantial increases in incidence.Recent reports, for example on Ethiopia3Tulu A Determinants of malaria transmission in the highlands of Ethiopia: the impact of global warming on mortality and morbidity ascribed to malaria. London University, PhD Thesis, 1996Google Scholar and Kenya (Githeko A, personal communication), suggest shifts in altitude in malaria consistent with increases in temperature. Increases in temperature might be associated with increased incidence of malaria in the Usumbara mountains of Tanzania,4Matola YG White GB Magayuka SA et al.The changed pattern of malaria endemicity and transmission at Amani in the eastern Usambara mountains, north-east Tanzania.J Trop Med Hyg. 1987; 90: 127-134PubMed Google Scholar and increases in temperature and rainfall have been associated with a steep rise in malaria cases in Rwanda. Changes in climate may be due to interannual variability, climatic cycles such El Niño, local deforestation, or global climate change; indeed all four may co-exist. Lindsay and Martens5Lindsay S, Martens WJM. Malaria in the African highlands: past, present and future. Bull World Health Organ (in press)Google Scholar have shown with mathematical modelling that such changes in incidence are likely to occur with climate change, but clearly other factors may also be at work including those outlined by Reiter. The historical data on high altitude transmission of malaria cited by Reiter do not necessarily mean that climate change will not effect the incidence of malaria at high altitudes.I have argued consistently for better monitoring of the potential health impacts of climate change to improve understanding of associations between short-term climate variablility, longer term underlying trends in global climate, local environment change, changes in public-health infrastructure on the one hand, and the occurrence of vector-borne diseases and other potential impacts on health of global warming on the other. Paul Reiter1Reiter P Global-warming and vector-borne disease in temperate regions and at high altitude.Lancet. 1998; 351: 839-840Summary Full Text Full Text PDF PubMed Scopus (55) Google Scholar incorrectly quotes me as making “adamant” claims that global warming has already caused malaria, dengue, and yellow fever to invade higher latitudes in the temperate regions and high altitudes in the tropics. Reiter's statement seems to be based on a misquote from a Lancet news article, in which I state, “there are some early signs of malaria and other vector-borne diseases being experienced at higher altitudes than was previously the case”.2McCurry J Physicians add their warnings to Kyoto summit.Lancet. 1997; 350: 1825Summary Full Text Full Text PDF Google Scholar I made no comment about higher latitudes in temperate countries, where in most cases public health infrastructure is likely to be adequate to prevent substantial increases in incidence. Recent reports, for example on Ethiopia3Tulu A Determinants of malaria transmission in the highlands of Ethiopia: the impact of global warming on mortality and morbidity ascribed to malaria. London University, PhD Thesis, 1996Google Scholar and Kenya (Githeko A, personal communication), suggest shifts in altitude in malaria consistent with increases in temperature. Increases in temperature might be associated with increased incidence of malaria in the Usumbara mountains of Tanzania,4Matola YG White GB Magayuka SA et al.The changed pattern of malaria endemicity and transmission at Amani in the eastern Usambara mountains, north-east Tanzania.J Trop Med Hyg. 1987; 90: 127-134PubMed Google Scholar and increases in temperature and rainfall have been associated with a steep rise in malaria cases in Rwanda. Changes in climate may be due to interannual variability, climatic cycles such El Niño, local deforestation, or global climate change; indeed all four may co-exist. Lindsay and Martens5Lindsay S, Martens WJM. Malaria in the African highlands: past, present and future. Bull World Health Organ (in press)Google Scholar have shown with mathematical modelling that such changes in incidence are likely to occur with climate change, but clearly other factors may also be at work including those outlined by Reiter. The historical data on high altitude transmission of malaria cited by Reiter do not necessarily mean that climate change will not effect the incidence of malaria at high altitudes. I have argued consistently for better monitoring of the potential health impacts of climate change to improve understanding of associations between short-term climate variablility, longer term underlying trends in global climate, local environment change, changes in public-health infrastructure on the one hand, and the occurrence of vector-borne diseases and other potential impacts on health of global warming on the other. Global warming and vector-borne diseaseAuthor's reply Full-Text PDF