Protecting a managed bee pollinator against climate change: strategies for an area with extreme climatic conditions and socioeconomic vulnerability

Abstract

In the semiarid region of Northeastern Brazil, populations of native bees can be jeopardized by future climate change. The present study aims to analyze the impact of climate change on a native stingless bee (Melipona subnitida Ducke). This species is a locally important pollinator of wild and crop plants, also exploited for honey production by regional beekeepers. Using species distributional modeling, we assessed the effects of climate change on the geographic distribution of M. subnitida. We found a potential shift in future areas where species can find climatically suitable habitats toward the edges of the current pollinator distribution with a consequent central disconnection, which can threaten species dispersal and gene flow. We propose to reconnect the remaining suitable areas through conservation and restoration programs based on the distribution of the plant species that are used by this bee as source of pollen and nectar and propose also, other strategies that aim to increase the welfare of local people