PROSPECTS OF SOLAR, GEOTHERMAL AND NUCLEAR POTENTIALS IN OPEC MEMBER COUNTRIES IN THE YEAR 2000*

Abstract

SummaryThe potential of alternative forms of energy such as solar, nuclear and geothermal in OPEC Member Countries in the year 2000 has been estimated at 1.88 million barrels of oil equivalent per day (mboe/d), as shown in Table 1. Compared with total projected petroleum consumption of 10.8 mboe/d, this represents a share of 17.4 per cent. The impressive total amount available for substitution is shared between geothermal, solar and nuclear energy in the ratio 43:40:17 per cent, respectively.The estimated geothermal contribution is quite feasible, assuming successful efforts in developing this resource and technological breakthroughs similar to those made in solar energy in recent years.The contribution of solar energy is difficult to determine. It might be that for sunny regions in Member Countries a higher potential for solar energy exists. Economic and technical constraints will limit the application of solar energy. Therefore the figure of 808,800 boe/d estimated as solar energy's contribution should be viewed as the average of a ± 20 per cent range.The contribution of nuclear energy is to a large extent a political issue. Although a lead time of about 12 years can be assumed for the implementation of a nuclear power station, the figures given for 2000 represent only a possible outcome.This paper discusses the potential availability of these three forms of alternative energy in individual OPEC Countries and the progress made in their application to date.