Prospects for the Polish Economy in the 1980s

Abstract

This chapter discusses a few prospects for the Polish economy in varied sectors in the 1980s. In the mid-70s, Polish planners formulated optimistic long-term plans and expected annual growth rates in industry, agriculture, and per capita gross national product of 7.5%, 2.7%, and 4.5%, respectively, from 1975 to 1990. Besides the much publicized scarcity of energy and of transport capacity, a shortage of raw materials and semifinished goods is now recognized as a severe bottleneck in production, especially since 1977, when a policy of restricting import was introduced. The Guidelines aim at a 6–8% reduction in unit consumption of raw materials. Three million private farmers own 68% of the 19 million ha agricultural land. Average size of private farms is only 4.7 ha. 30% of the farms have an area smaller than 2 ha, 55% of the farms are in the 2–10 ha bracket, and the remaining 15% occupy nearly 40% of the area. Socialist farming is dominated by the 1700 State farms with average holdings of 2300 ha, while cooperatives and agricultural circles play minor, albeit increasing roles. In accordance with the decisions of the 14th Central Committee Plenum from April 1979, responsibilities for small-scale industry are transferred from big industrial associations (WOGs) to local authorities. At the same time, big industrial plants are encouraged to sell or rent surplus machinery to small-scale industries and to supply them with necessary materials.