Prospects for the development of medium- and high-tech economic activities of the Samara region from the perspective of industry cyclical dynamics

Abstract

Regional innovative development is the most important condition for ensuring the sustainability and balance of the economy of a country which is widely discussed in the scientific literature. However, despite having been ignored, the cyclicality of industries is an additional factor that either needs to be addressed or used to drive innovation. The article is aimed at assessing the prospects for the innovative development of the Samara region based upon the data on the cyclicality of prospective economic activities. For this purpose, the authors reviewed the dynamics of industries, identified stages of cycles, trends, fulfilled the medium-term forecast. The methodology of scientific research was determined by the econophysical approach, and the toolkit is the authors digital platform. The empirical material was formed by publicly available data from Rosstat on the growth rates of the physical volume of manufacturing industry. Special attention is paid to medium and high-tech economic activities. The scientific results consist in obtaining the data on the profile and dynamics of the sectoral cycles of the Samara region, which enabled to build trends in the sectors and determine further prospects for the development of medium- and high-tech economic activities in the region. The novelty of the study is the authors methodology for estimating cycles, which allowed to obtain these results and expand both the practical application of the tool to assess cyclical dynamics and its application to the research task. New results on trend, cycle, seasonality were also obtained. The most promising mid-term medium and high-tech types of economic activity of the Samara region have been identified.