Forecasting the dynamics of indicators of economic development of Russian regions, taking into account the level of balance of innovation processes

Abstract

Aim. Development of scenario forecasts of the dynamics of indicators of regional development, taking into account the level of balance of innovation processes. Tasks. To determine the factors of balanced economic and innovation development of the regions; to form a matrix of balanced innovation development; to work out a methodology for calculat­ing the integral index of balanced innovation development of the regions; to analyze the dynam­ics of the index of balanced innovation development of the signal regions of the Volga Federal District (VFD); to prepare scenario forecasts of the index of balanced innovation development of the signal regions of VFD. Methods. The author used general scientific and special research methods, taking into account their cognitive potential. The latter include correlation and regression, discriminant and clus­ter types of analysis, content analysis, graphic representation, as well as methods of individu­al and collective expert evaluations. SPSS Statistics software product was used during statisti­cal data processing. Results. The proposed methodology for calculating the index of balanced innovation development is based on the use of ideas about the internal factors of balance, which include the compliance of economic systems with the signs of stability and equilibrium, as well as the proportionality of changes in its elements. Conclusions. The methodology substantiated by the author complements the analytical tools for studying the patterns of innovation development by including the indicators of the level of balance and their impact on the dynamics of economic indicators. The obtained conclusions can be used to refine the forecasts of indicators of economic development of the regions, taking into account the state of innovation processes.