Prospects for the 2040 Norwegian electricity system: Expert views in a probabilistic modeling approach

Abstract

This study examines expert opinions on power demand and supply developments for 2040 in Norway based on a combined survey and modeling approach. The survey responses show that production and consumption will likely increase, with most respondents assuming a positive energy balance in 2040 Norway. Capacity expansion uncertainty between expert opinions is particularly high for offshore wind on the production side and electricity demand from hydrogen electrolysis on the consumption side. The survey results are combined with a Monte Carlo modeling approach to estimate solution spaces for electricity prices, value factors, and market values for power generating technologies in the energy system model Balmorel. The model results show that electricity prices are strongly influenced by the energy balance, with a negative exponential relationship between the electricity price and an increase in the energy balance. The value factors for hydropower with reservoirs are consistently the highest across the model runs, while solar PV and hydro run-of-river have the lowest value factors. An increasingly positive energy balance increases hydropower with reservoirs' value factor and decreases the value factor for all other technologies. This indicates an additional competitive advantage for hydropower with reservoirs if production development outpaces demand and vice versa.