Abstract
In this paper, a regionally disaggregated global energy system model with a detailed treatment of the electricity supply sector is used to derive the cost-optimal choice of electricity generation technologies for each of 70 world regions over the period 2010-2050 under a constraint of halving global energy-related CO2 emissions in 2050 compared to the 2000 level. It is first shown that the long-term global electricity generation mix under the CO2 constraint becomes highly diversified, which includes coal, natural gas, nuclear, biomass, hydro, geothermal, onshore and offshore wind, solar photovoltaics (PV), and concentrated solar power (CSP). In this carbon-constrained world, 89.9% of the electricity generation from coal, natural gas, and biomass is combined with CO2 capture and storage (CCS) in 2050. It is then shown that the long-term electricity generation mix under the CO2 constraint varies significantly by world region. Fossil fuels with CCS enter the long-term electricity generation mix in all world regions. In contrast, there is a sharp regional difference in the renewable generation technology of choice in the long term. For example, the world regions suitable for PV plants include the US, Western Europe, Japan, Korea, and China, while those suitable for CSP plants include the Middle East, Africa, Australia, and western Asia. Offshore wind is deployed on a large scale in the UK, Ireland, Nordic countries, the southern part of Latin America, and Japan.
Highlights
Climate change is the most pressing and threatening issue facing human beings
The results indicate that among the four sectors, the electricity generation sector makes the largest contribution to reducing cumulative global CO2 emissions over the period 20102050 from those in the BaU case, accounting for 64.7% of the total emissions reduction
Using the regionally disaggregated global energy system model with a detailed treatment of the electricity supply sector, this paper has derived the cost-optimal choice of electricity generation technologies in regional detail over the period to 2050 under the constraint of halving global energy-related CO2 emissions in 2050 compared to the 2000 level
Summary
Climate change is the most pressing and threatening issue facing human beings. the United Nations warned in a recent report [1] that international efforts to mitigate climate change are, at this stage, insufficient to meet the goal of keeping global warming to below 2.0 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels. In order to avoid dangerous climate change and to achieve sustainable development, a portfolio of rational greenhouse gas (GHG) mitigation actions must be identified and their implementation must be accelerated. In response to such political needs, many research organizations have proposed desirable strategies for reducing CO2 emissions from the energy sector under a global 2.0 degrees Celsius stabilization target. They have often indicated that the decarbonization of the electricity generation sector is an attractive CO2 mitigation option in terms of CO2 mitigation potential and cost-effectiveness (e.g., [2,3]). For the model to be used for this purpose, it was updated to properly consider the variability of renewable electricity generation and flexibility measures needed to integrate variable renewables into a power grid
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