Prospects for electric vehicles

PurposeTo model and analyze the dynamic response of an electric vehicle (EV) suspension system and compare it with a conventional internal combustion engine (ICE) vehicle, focusing on passenger comfort and safety.Design/methodology/approachBoth vehicles are modeled as quarter car (two DOF for EV) and half car (four DOF for EV and five DOF for ICE). The analysis includes vehicle–road and vehicle–bridge interaction dynamics using MATLAB Simulink and the Runge–Kutta method, incorporating various road profiles and disturbances.FindingsThe EV’s suspension system outperforms the ICE vehicle in ride comfort and road holding across various conditions, with better responses to road disturbances and reduced peak overshoot. These results highlight the advantages of EV designs in enhancing overall vehicle dynamics.Originality/valueThis study makes several novel contributions, including the mathematical modeling of a half-car model for an ICE vehicle that incorporates secondary unbalanced forces of the engine. It also explores a complex vehicle–bridge interaction system, considering both road roughness and sinusoidal bumps. Furthermore, it compares the dynamic responses of an equivalent EV model traversing this complex bridge, with a conventional ICE vehicle, providing new insights into the distinct characteristics of EV suspensions.

<div class="section abstract"><div class="htmlview paragraph">The need to control global warming by regulating automotive emission levels has led to a lot of changes in the policies of different countries globally, specifically the United States (US) and the European Union (EU). More recently, the governments have been strongly pushing the integration of Electric Vehicles (EVs) in the market to replace the conventional Internal Combustion Engine (ICE) vehicles for CO₂ emissions reduction, with the enforcement of 50% EV sales by 2030 in the US and complete 100% by 2035 in the EU for passenger cars. However, these policies are misleading by considering EVs as zero emission vehicles, as there is no such technology yet available that has zero emissions during its lifecycle. During the manufacturing phase, any vehicle produced gives out emissions, with EVs emitting even higher than the conventional ICE vehicles with their battery manufacturing. Further, during the use phase, there might be no Tank-to-Wheel emissions from the EVs due to zero tailpipe emissions, but they do have very high Well-to-Tank emissions from the electricity generation needed to recharge the batteries. On the other hand, hybridization is also a promising way for CO₂ emissions reduction. Using synthetic e-fuels, hybrids can have emission reductions much higher than using conventional fuels or even when compared to EVs on life cycle basis. Hence, in this study, we have evaluated the life cycle CO₂ emissions reduction potential with electric and e-fueled ICE vehicle as two different cases, varying their sales from 0 to 100%, according to the set EU and US targets, for the total car fleet of both the countries. The evaluation is done with 0D numerical simulations performed on GT suite, for 30 different drive cycles consisting of 10 urban, 10 sub-urban and 10 highway cases with GPS based vehicle speed information, for US as well as EU separately. Results shows that e-fueled ICE and e-fueled hybrid vehicles have greater CO₂ emissions reduction potential than EVs.</div></div>

The Aerospace Corporation, in support of the Department of Energy (DOE) Electric Vehicle Project, has undertaken two activities related to defining the possible characteristics of the mid-1980s electric passenger car. The first activity, an investigation of the potential performance and cost characteristics through computer modeling, was supported by the Argonne National Laboratory, General Research Corporation, Jet Propulsion Laboratory, Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory, and NASA/Lewis Research Center. That investigation was restricted to a 4-passenger, all-electric car similar to the DOE Electric Test Vehicle-One (ETV-1) developed by the General Electric Company and the Chrysler Corporation. The study effort was completed in February 1981. The second effort currently underway is an electric vehicle (EV) applications research study that is part of a government/industry collaborative effort. Based on the computer modeling results, the state of technology for the mid-1980s, 4-passenger electric car could achieve an urban driving range of 80 to 100 miles with acceleration competitive with a comparable-size, diesel-powered car. Top speeds and ramp accelerations compatible with highway driving also appear achievable. These conclusions assume that the batteries being developed through DOE funding--improved lead-acid, zinc/nickel oxide, iron/nickel oxide, and zinc/chloride--will achieve their currently established performance goals in mass production. The purchase price of a 4-passenger electric car with a 100-mile range is projected to be at least 50 percent higher than that of a comparable internal combustion engine (ICE) vehicle. However, life-cycle costs for a 4-passenger, 100-mile-range car are predicted to range from slightly lower to moderately higher than those of a comparable ICE vehicle depending on petroleum costs and the cost and cycle life of the batteries. The eventual cost and performance of the mid-1980s electric car will be influenced greatly by the trade-offs associated with battery weight and cost versus vehicle payload and range requirements. In general, cost and performance results tend to indicate the desirability of pursuing the development of a 2-passenger car and/or a less than 100-mile-range car if the market for these types of vehicles appears sufficiently attractive. For the second effort, The Aerospace Corporation will subcontract an electric vehicle applications research study to identify the vehicle attributes most likely to influence consumer purchasing decisions. The Statement of Work for this study was prepared by a Steering Committee composed of representatives of the major domestic automobile manufacturers, the EV supply industry, the electric utility industry, and other interested organizations. As part of this effort, it was necessary to define the characteristics of the mid-1980s electric car and its expected competition in that time frame. Vehicle characteristics were selected based on a consensus of the Steering Committee members. The projected characteristics of the baseline electric car defined by the Steering Committee agree quite closely with those predicted in the modeling work mentioned earlier. For the conduct of the study, it has been predicted that the baseline electric car will achieve a 75-mile range, accelerate somewhat more slowly than a comparable ICE vehicle, and perform satisfactorily on highways. The monthly ownership and operation cost (at current gasoline prices) and purchase price are estimated to be 30 and 50 percent higher, respectively. Assuming a more optimistic battery purchase price and replacement rate, the vehicle monthly cost is predicted to be equal to that of a comparable-size ICE vehicle. Competitive vehicles in the mid-1980s are assumed to be powered by gasoline, diesel, or an alternative fuel such as methanol. The fuel economy of these vehicles in urban driving is estimated to be 40 to 50 mpg, and the acceleration is projected to be similar to or somewhat slower than today's ICE vehicle. It is anticipated that the results of the applications study will help focus future DOE and industry research and development efforts on those areas that will most satisfy consumer needs.

This study examines factors affecting household vehicle miles traveled (VMT) with a focus on the differences between electric vehicles (EVs) and conventional internal combustion engine vehicles (ICEVs). This study mainly utilizes detailed individual‐level data from the 2017 National Household Travel Survey‐California Add‐on (2017 NHTS‐CA). We first classify households into three groups such as (1) households with only ICEVs, (2) households with only EVs, and (3) households with both ICEVs and EVs. We then employ ordinary least square regression models to analyze the determinants of household VMT across three groups. Second, we focus on households with both ICEVs and EVs to look at the substitute patterns between ICEVs and EVs. We employ a fractional logit model to analyze the factors affecting the share of EVs' VMT in total household VMT. Key findings are as follows. First, households with only EVs tend to have lower household VMT than others. Second, available charging stations near residential locations lead to longer households VMT in households with only EVs. Third, employment density has different effects on household VMT by groups. For instance, high employment density leads to shorter household VMT in households with only ICEVs and with both ICEVs and EVs. On the other hand, high employment density reveals a statistically positive effect on household VMT in households with only EVs. Lastly, in households with both ICEVs and EVs, the share of EVs' VMT is likely to increase in total household VMT if EVs are used more for work trips and shopping/family errands.

Sustainable development requires inter al the reduction of energy consumption and of traffic-induced pollutant emissions. Hybrid electric vehicles (HEVs) are one of the most promising approaches to decrease emissions. This paper considers the influence of hybridization of transport on energy consumption and emissions on single lanes of road traffic. We have developed a micro-simulation tool which integrates instantaneous consumption and emission models. We have modelled microscopic behaviour of vehicles using a full velocity difference model for longitudinal moving. Then, we have used two macroscopic energy consumption models (COPERT and HBEFA) and an instantaneous energy-consumption model concerning the conventional Internal Combustion Engine (ICE) vehicle to illustrate the relevance of microscopic modelling of energy consumption. Furthermore, we have compared the energy consumption of the HEV Toyota Prius with that of the conventional ICE vehicle. An emission model emissions from traffic (EMIT) was also implemented and extended in order to estimate HEV emissions. The model is used to quantify CO2 and CO emissions for the HEV Toyota Prius and the conventional ICE vehicle. Moreover, we have studied the influence of fleet hybridization level on energy consumption for congested and uncongested traffic flow state. HEVs can offer major environmental improvements as well as substantial reductions of energy consumption and road traffic emissions. Hybridization is a relevant solution to reduce energy consumption and emissions.

This report presents the results of a study of the future of electric passenger vehicles. The study involved three tasks: developing models of supply and demand for electric vehicles, and projecting vehicle sales and stock of electric vehicles for the period 1985 to 2000, as well as the impact of these vehicles on utility loads. The supply model which includes an Electric Vehicle Design Model, calculates factors such as weight, battery size, and cost of a vehicle from user-supplied design characteristics. A key variable is the price of electric vehicles over the period 1985 to 2000. The price concept employed here is that of ''full'' price for owning and operating a vehicle. In the next stage of the analysis, calculation of electric vehicle sales and stocks, the ''hedonic'' approach is adopted which states that consumers' demand for a good is a derived demand for a bundle of characteristics (comfort, cost, performance, and the like) provided by the vehicle. Using this approach, a demand model was developed that forecasts the future stock and sales of electric vehicles and their competitors--internal combustion engine (ICE) vehicles. The final step in the analysis is the calculation of electricity loads and air quality impacts on a national basis for the period 1985 to 2000, and also for New York, Chicago, Los Angeles, and Washington, D.C. By end of the century, the models predict that approximately 141 million passenger vehicles will be on the road, and that 11 to 13 million of these will be electric vehicles, incorporating an advanced battery. This projection, of course, depends on a variety of factors, particularly on the relative full prices of electric and ICE vehicles. (ERA citation 03:052948)

Well-to-wheel greenhouse gas emissions of electric versus combustion vehicles from 2018 to 2030 in the US

As many countries transition to electric vehicles (EVs) to reduce tailpipe emissions from internal combustion engine vehicles (ICEVs), both vehicle types continue to generate non-exhaust particulate matter (PM), including tire wear, brake wear, road surface wear, and particularly road dust resuspension. Among these, road dust resuspension is a major contributor to non-exhaust PM. While factors such as vehicle weight and drivetrain configuration have been extensively studied in fleet-level research, direct comparisons between ICEVs and EVs of the same model have not been explored. This study investigates the effects of drivetrain, vehicle weight, and payload on road dust resuspension emissions from ICEV and EV models. Two experimental approaches were employed: (1) acceleration from 0 to 60 km/h, and (2) a simulated real-world driving cycle (RDC). Each test was conducted under both light and heavy payload conditions. The results show that the EV consistently emitted more PM than the ICEV during both acceleration and RDC tests, based on factory-standard vehicle weights. Under identical vehicle weight conditions, the EV demonstrated higher PM resuspension levels, likely due to its higher torque and more immediate power delivery, which increases friction between the tires and the road, particularly during rapid acceleration. Both vehicle types exhibited significant increases in PM emissions under heavy payload conditions. These findings underscore the importance of addressing non-exhaust emissions from EVs, particularly road dust resuspension, and highlight the need for further research into mitigation strategies, such as vehicle lightweighting.

Thanks to top-notch vehicle testing and internationally standardized inspections, the modes of transportation are cleaner and more efficient today. Though the development for conventional internal combustion engine vehicles (ICEVs) has almost saturated today, yet it retains the commercial/heavy-duty (trucks and buses) automobile market. Thus, it becomes of utmost importance to analyze the well-to-wheel efficiency for determining the overall energy consumption and greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions while transitioning toward sustainable transportation. Electric vehicles (EVs) do have environmental impacts that are directly related to the country’s electricity generation, as they may involve fossil burning where other alternative sources of energy are not adequately present. This paper presents the overall energy efficiencies and GHG emissions from commercial/heavy-duty ICEVs and EVs. The study also briefly compares the other vehicle segments like 2 Wheeler, 3 Wheeler, and cars. Finally, the results show that commercial/heavy-duty ICEVs are advantageous over heavy-duty EVs when the GHG emissions are considered as of today. The commercial/heavy-duty ICEVs emit over 405 g CO2e/km, and counter EVs produce 706 g CO2e/km. The GHG emissions from 2 Wheeler ICEV were 46 g CO2e/km and by the same segment, EV is 13 g CO2e/km. Moving toward the car segment, an ICEV car produces around 158 g CO2e/km and an EV of a similar model emits 67 g CO2e/km. Furthermore, the 3 Wheeler ICEV emits around 99 g CO2e/km and a 3 Wheeler EV produces lesser at 24 g CO2e/km. Moving further on well-to-wheel energy efficiency, ICEVs have a maximum overall energy efficiency of 28%. Since EVs use various sources of energy for charging the battery, the overall efficiency was found to be at least 21% and maximum up to 39%. Thus, on an average EVs presently have a well-to-wheel efficiency of 32% when electricity generation mix is used for charging.

Author(s): Muehlegger, Erich; Rapson, David | Abstract: This research project explores the plug-in electric vehicle (PEV) market, including both Battery Electric Vehicles (BEVs) and Plug-in Hybrid Electric Vehicles (PHEVs), and the sociodemographic characteristics of purchasing households. The authors use detailed micro-level data on PEV purchase records to answer two primary research questions. Their results confirm that low-income households exhibit a lower share of PEV purchases than they do for conventional, internal combustion engine (ICE) vehicles. Households with annual income less than $50,000 comprise 33 percent of ICE purchases and only 14 percent of PEVS. By comparison, high-income households earning more than $150,000 annually comprise only 12 percent of ICE purchases and 35 percent of PEV purchases over their sample period. Similarly, unsurprising patterns can be seen across ethnicities. For example, non-Hispanic Whites represent 41 percent of ICE purchases but 55 percent of PEV purchases, as compared to Hispanics (38 percent of ICE and 10 percent of PEVs) and African Americans (3 percent of ICEs and 2 percent of PEVS). These differences naturally raise questions about barriers to PEV adoption among low-income and minority ethnic populations. By comparing outcomes in the ICE, hybrid, and PEV markets across income and ethnic groups, the authors are able to test whether price discrimination and barriers to market access are higher in PEV markets for low-income and minority ethnic groups. The authors find that, overall, they are not, although there are mixed results for the used PEV market. In general, non-white, low-income populations face higher prices in the used PEV market, relative to a baseline, than they do in the new PEV market. While some people travel farther to buy used PEVs than they do to buy used ICE vehicles, there is not a pattern that would indicate systematic discrimination (e.g. Hispanics travel farther to buy used PHEVs but less far to buy used BEVs). While the authors admit that their empirical approach cannot control for all potential vehicle composition effects, the authors view their results as being most consistent with a market that provides access to all ethnicities and income groups.View the NCST Project Webpage

- Increasing concerns on climate change and energy sec urity accelerated policies to reduce green-house gas emission, especially from the transportation sector. Electric vehicle (EV) has been on the spotlight to deal with such environmental issue and V2G (Vehicle-to-Grid) te chnology began to draw attentions as an alternative to reduce ownership costs while contributing to an efficient and decentralized power grid. This study conducts a scenario analysis on total cost of ownership of EV under V2G scheme and compare with non-V2G EV and Internal Combustion Engine (ICE) vehicle. As res ult, V2G service is expected to provide an annual average profit of $210 to EV users willing to reverse fl ow its residual power in the battery. The profit from V2G service leaves a margin of $4,530 over operational lif etime, compared with $2,420 cost of charge for non-V2G EV. In summary, total cost of ownership of V2G-capa ble EV was 6.2% less than non-V2G EV and 10.2% higher than ICE vehicle. The results confirm a compar ative economic advantage of operating EV under V2G scheme. Increased number of EVs with V2G service has shown to provide positive effects to power industry for valley filling in load distribution, thus, f avorably increasing the overall economic feasibility.

<div class="section abstract"><div class="htmlview paragraph">The rising demand for electric vehicles (EVs) has pushed automakers to prioritize visual brand consistency across both EVs and internal combustion engine (ICE) vehicles. A main design factor which is influenced by this trend is the front grille. In order to achieve uniform aesthetic looks, passenger car manufacturers often reduce the front grille openings and limit airflow. This closed grille style is common in electric vehicle. However, this creates challenges for internal combustion engine (ICE) vehicles with snorkel-type air intake systems, leading to reduced airflow and higher temperatures in the engine bay and intake air which eventually gets sucked in the engine resulting in low volumetric efficiency.</div><div class="htmlview paragraph">Maintaining a cooler intake air is vital for ICE performance. Adjusting snorkel position and airflow patterns in low temperature zones ensures the engine receives air at low temperatures. This improves the combustion efficiency, throttle response and eventually it reduces the risk of knock. This study emphasizes the need to control intake air temperature in such a way that the air intake system supports to meet performance and emissions targets.</div><div class="htmlview paragraph">In our study, we use simulation tools such as computation fluid dynamics (CFD) and experiments in order to demonstrate that the ICE vehicle grille design having restricted air flow which are similar to the electric vehicles, increases the air temperature that enters into the snorkel of air intake system. This pre-heated air that enters into engine reduces its efficiency, power output and also might eventually affect the emissions. The findings in our study quantifies the thermal penalty that are linked to this design standardization.</div><div class="htmlview paragraph">In order to overcome these issues, the study recommends tailored front-end module thermal management strategies for ICE vehicles particularly for air intake system. The approach optimizes airflow and minimizes heat gain in snorkel of air intakes and hence preserving engine performance without sacrificing the visual consistency between EV and ICE models.</div></div>

Factors influencing global transportation electrification: Comparative analysis of electric and internal combustion engine vehicles

Fuel-speed curves (FSC) are used to account for the aggregate effects of congestion on fuel consumption in transportation scenario analysis. This paper presents plausible FSC for conventional internal combustion engine (ICE) vehicles and for advanced vehicles such as hybrid electric vehicles, fully electric vehicles (EVs), and fuel cell vehicles (FCVs) using a fuel consumption model with transient driving schedules and a set of 145 hypothetical vehicles. The FSC shapes show that advanced power train vehicles are expected to maintain fuel economy (FE) in congestion better than ICE vehicles, and FE can even improve for EV and FCV in freeway congestion. In order to implement these FSC for long-range scenario modeling, a bounded approach is presented which uses a single congestion sensitivity parameter. The results in this paper will assist analysis of the roles that vehicle technology and congestion mitigation can play in reducing fuel consumption and greenhouse gas emissions from motor vehicles.

Parametric analysis of technology and policy tradeoffs for conventional and electric light-duty vehicles