Prospective Voting in Presidential Elections, 1956-1988

Abstract

The research presented in this article concerns the time frame of the electorate. Do voters look to the past, the future, or both when deciding how to vote in presidential elections? An analysis of the American National Election Studies of 1956 through 1988 supports the argument that voters look both backward and forward when deciding for whom to vote. Although both retrospective and prospective economic evaluations are important, and the level of importance of each varies somewhat over time, it is clear that evaluations of future performance are an important influence on vote choice. Even when placed in a causal model with both party identification and retrospective evaluations prior to them, the prospective evaluations remain a forceful influence on vote choice.