Prospect of the upper limit of the energy demand in China from regional aspects

Abstract

Abstract The aim of this article is to indicate the upper limit of the annual energy demand in China, taking into consideration regional demand trends and projecting these trends into the distant future. The upper limit of energy consumption is not strictly the maximum amount of consumption. It means that the actual consumption will possibly exceed this level but not by much. Consumption was calculated using the current energy consumption in the US and Japan as a reference, whose energy demands have already almost reached their upper limits. Scenario analysis was conducted for both semiquantitative and numerical models. Scenarios were developed taking into account the situation in rural regions. The prospect of regional population growth was also taken into consideration. The results revealed large differences between the estimates in this study (2810–14,450 Mtoe), which means that if the energy consumption per capita in low-consumption areas increases, the total consumption in China will also increase significantly. According to the OECD prospect rates, our estimated upper limit will be surpassed in China around 2032–2073.