Proposal of uncertainty analysis methodology for L1PRA using Markov state-transition model

Abstract

ABSTRACT Following the severe accident at the Fukushima Daiichi Nuclear Power Plant in 2011, the revised nuclear safety regulation in Japan requires continuous safety improvement and states that PRA methods that reflect the latest knowledge should be used in activities related to continuous safety improvement. In this context, the construction of PRA models for the digital RPS (DRPS) has been addressed as an important issue within the Working Group on Risk Assessment (WGRISK) of the OECD/NEA, and several studies have been conducted. And there are challenges in aligning them with the conventional probabilistic risk assessment methodology. In a previous study, the authors developed a simultaneous differential equation describing the relationship between state transitions and state probabilities based on Markov state transition diagrams to calculate them numerically. However, the analytical method for uncertainty analysis commonly used in conventional PRA evaluations is not explicitly presented. The purpose of this study is to provide a methodology for more accurate evaluation of core damage frequency in nuclear power plants equipped with digital RPS, taking into account the uncertainties, and to contribute to the continuous improvement of safety.