Proportional Variation of Potential Groundwater Recharge as a Result of Climate Change and Land-Use: A Study Case in Mexico

Jesús Guerrero-Morales,Sonia Emilia Silva-Gómez,Miguel A Goméz-Albores,María Laura Sampedro-Rosas,Carlos R Fonseca

doi:10.3390/land9100364

Abstract

This work proposes a methodology whereby the selection of hydrologic and land-use cover change (LUCC) models allows an assessment of the proportional variation in potential groundwater recharge (PGR) due to both land-use cover change (LUCC) and some climate change scenarios for 2050. The simulation of PGR was made through a distributed model, based on empirical methods and the forecasting of LUCC stemming from a supervised classification with remote sensing techniques, both inside a Geographic Information System. Once the supervised classification was made, a Markov-based model was developed to predict LUCC to 2050. The method was applied in Acapulco, an important tourism center for Mexico. From 1986 to 2017, the urban area increased 5%, and by 2050 was predicted to cover 16%. In this period, a loss of 7 million m3 of PGR was assumed to be caused by the estimated LUCC. From 2017 to 2050, this loss is expected to increase between 73 and 273 million m3 depending on the considered climate change scenario, which is the equivalent amount necessary for satisfying the water needs of 6 million inhabitants. Therefore, modeling the variation in groundwater recharge can be an important tool for identifying water vulnerability, through both climate and land-use change.

Highlights

Land-use cover change (LUCC), especially the transformation of natural vegetation to agricultural and urban uses, can directly modify the hydrological cycle, resulting in increased flooding and decreased groundwater recharge, among other effects [1,2,3,4]
As this study focuses on land-use cover change (LUCC), it requires a model able to provide information with a territorial approach that is as simple as possible, to keep the potential groundwater recharge (PGR) projection in the future lying just within the forecast of temperature, rainfall and LUCC
The information before-mentioned leads to a series of possible strategies in sustainable water resource management

Summary

Introduction

Land-use cover change (LUCC), especially the transformation of natural vegetation to agricultural and urban uses, can directly modify the hydrological cycle, resulting in increased flooding and decreased groundwater recharge, among other effects [1,2,3,4]. The introduction of relative impermeable materials or surfaces prevents groundwater recharge [5,6]. Precipitation, lateral flow from adjacent unconfined aquifers, irrigation practices and pipeline leakage are the main sources of groundwater recharge [7,8,9]. The vertical water that drains from the surface to the root zone (unsaturated zone) is called infiltration [10], and the subsequent displacement of water by capillarity and gravity to the groundwater (saturated zone) is called percolation [9]. For this study, the potential groundwater recharge (PGR) is related to the vertical flow from precipitation that has the potential to percolate to the aquifer [8,9], and the main factors that allow this

Methods

Results

Conclusion