Property forecasting in actuarial modelling and asset management

Abstract

Claims as property modelling and forecasting techniques have developed to take account of new investment theories, property researchers have tended to follow the approach of modern portfolio theory and, sometimes, the capital asset pricing model (CAPM). Argues that one of the reasons why property is often not included in actuarial property forecasting models for the purpose of asset allocation (which is a widespread perception in the property industry) is because actuaries have not made clear to property researchers the forms of their models, which are often quite different from those used in others parts of the finance literature. Explains how traditional investment theory can be adapted for actuarial use and how actuaries use forecasting models in asset allocation. Areas of property research which would assist actuaries develop better property forecasting models are identified.