Properties of the Current 23rd Solar-Activity Cycle

Abstract

The main properties of the current cycle match almost completely those of average-magnitude solar cycles, and some of the features of the current cycle may indicate a change in the generation mode of magnetic fields in the solar convection zone. In this case, the Sun enters a period of intermediate and weak cycles of solar activity (SA) in terms of the Wolf numbers, which may last for 50 to 100 years. This change may result in further pollution of the Earth's environment (near-Earth space) due to the unfavorable regime of removing cosmic garbage from low-Earth orbit, the substantial increase of the radiation background in near space (the weakening of interplanetary magnetic fields will result in an increased concentration of galactic cosmic rays in the heliosphere), and other, possibly unfavorable, consequences. The main development stages of the 23rd solar-activity cycle are the following: the minimum of the 22nd solar cycle, May 1996 (W*=8.0); the beginning of the growth phase, September 1997; the maximum of the smoothed relative sunspot number, April, 2000; the global polarity reversal of the general solar magnetic field, July to December 2000; the secondary maximum of the relative sunspot number, November 2001; the maximum of the 10.7-cm radio flux, February 2002; the phase of the cycle maximum, October 1999 to June 2002; the beginning of the decrease phase, July 2002; the most powerful flare events of the current cycle, October to November 2003; and the likely point of minimum of the current SA cycle, November to December 2006.