Propagating Uncertainty in Plot-based Estimates of Forest Carbon Stock and Carbon Stock Change

Abstract

Ecosystem science increasingly relies on highly derived metrics to synthesize across large datasets. However, full uncertainty associated with these metrics is seldom quantified. Our objective was to evaluate measurement error and model uncertainty in plot-based estimates of carbon stock and carbon change. We quantified the measurement error associated with live stems, deadwood and plot-level variables in temperate rainforest in New Zealand. We also quantified model uncertainty for height–diameter allometry, stem volume equations and wood-density estimates. We used Monte Carlo simulation to assess the net effects on carbon stock and carbon change estimated using data from 227 plots from throughout New Zealand. Plot-to-plot variation was the greatest source of uncertainty, amounting to 9.1% of mean aboveground carbon stock estimates (201.11 MgC ha−1). Propagation of the measurement error and model uncertainty resulted in a 1% increase in uncertainty (0.1% of mean stock estimate). Carbon change estimates (mean −0.86 MgC ha−1 y−1) were more uncertain, with sampling error equating to 56% of the mean, and when measurement error and model uncertainty were included this uncertainty increased by 35% (22.1% of the mean change estimate). For carbon change, the largest sources of measurement error were missed/double counted stems and fallen coarse woody debris. Overall, our findings show that national-scale plot-based estimates of carbon stock and carbon change in New Zealand are robust to measurement error and model uncertainty. We recommend that calculations of carbon stock and carbon change incorporate both these sources of uncertainty so that management implications and policy decisions can be assessed with the appropriate level of confidence.