Projections of the global energy system evolution 30 years later: Checking the lessons of the future by the past experience

Abstract

This article compares the author’s projections of the global energy system evolution up to 2020 as made in the early 1990s, against the actual data. This type of analysis is a rare and therefore an interesting case. Typically, after pro­jections for decades ahead have been published, no one bothers to compare them with the reality. Long-term projections are expected to outline possible states of the explored systems and to develop policy recommendations. The question of whether such projections can be trusted is always in minds of the projections’ “consumers” (decision-makers and experts), but very rarely a clear answer is provided. This paper fills this gap and shows that the “lessons of the future” can be learned based on well-structured models and analytical schemes.