Projections of SO2, NOx, NH3 and VOC Emissions in East Asia Up to 2030

Abstract

Starting from an inventory of SO2, NOx, VOC and NH3 emissions for the years 1990 and 1995 in East Asia (Japan, South and North Korea, China, Mongolia and Taiwan), the temporal development of the emissions of the four air pollutants is projected to the year 2030 based on scenarios of economic development. The projections are prepared at a regional level (prefectures or provinces of individual countries) and distinguish more than 100 source categories for each region. The emission estimates are presented with a spatial resolution of 1×1 degree longitude/latitude. First results suggest that, due to the emission control legislation taken in the region, SO2 emissions would only grow by about 46 percent until 2030. Emissions of NOx and VOC may increase by 95 and 65 percent, respectively, mainly driven by the expected increase in road traffic volume. Ammonia, mainly emitted from agriculture, is projected to double by 2030.