Abstract
Abstract. Anthropogenic emissions of air pollutants in China influence not only local and regional environments but also the global atmospheric environment; therefore, it is important to understand how China's air pollutant emissions will change and how they will affect regional air quality in the future. Emission scenarios in 2020 were projected using forecasts of energy consumption and emission control strategies based on emissions in 2005, and on recent development plans for key industries in China. We developed four emission scenarios: REF[0] (current control legislations and implementation status), PC[0] (improvement of energy efficiencies and current environmental legislation), PC[1] (improvement of energy efficiencies and better implementation of environmental legislation), and PC[2] (improvement of energy efficiencies and strict environmental legislation). Under the REF[0] scenario, the emission of SO2, NOx, VOC and NH3 will increase by 17%, 50%, 49% and 18% in 2020, while PM10 emissions will be reduced by 10% over East China, compared to that in 2005. In PC[2], sustainable energy polices will reduce SO2, NOx and PM10 emissions by 4.1 Tg, 2.6 Tg and 1.8 Tg, respectively; better implementation of current control policies will reduce SO2, NOx and PM10 emission by 2.9 Tg, 1.8 Tg, and 1.4 Tg, respectively; strict emission standards will reduce SO2, NOx and PM10 emissions by 3.2 Tg, 3.9 Tg, and 1.7 Tg, respectively. Under the PC[2] scenario, SO2 and PM10 emissions will decrease by 18% and 38%, while NOx and VOC emissions will increase by 3% and 8%, compared to that in 2005. Future air quality in China was simulated using the Community Multi-scale Air Quality Model (CMAQ). Under REF[0] emissions, compared to 2005, the surface concentrations of SO2, NO2, hourly maximum ozone in summer, PM2.5, total sulfur and nitrogen depositions will increase by 28%, 41%, 8%, 8%, 19% and 25%, respectively, over east China. Under the PC[2] emission scenario, the surface concentrations of SO2, PM2.5, total sulfur depositions will decrease by 18%, 16% and 15%, respectively, and the surface concentrations of NO2, nitrate, hourly maximum ozone in summer, total nitrogen depositions will be kept as 2005 level, over east China. The individual impacts of SO2, NOx, NH3, NMVOC and primary PM emission changes on ozone and PM2.5 concentrations have been analyzed using sensitivity analysis. The results suggest that NOx emission control need to be enhanced during the summertime to obtain both ozone and PM2.5 reduction benefits. NH3 emission controls should also be considered in order to reduce both nitrate concentration and total nitrogen deposition in the future.
Highlights
With the fast growth of the domestic economy and urbanization in China, the emissions of air pollutants from coal combustion, industrial production, and transport have been increasing at an unprecedented rate over the last decade
Activity data We developed two energy scenarios, a reference scenario (REF) which was based on current development trends, and a policy scenario (PC) which assumed that more sustainable energy development strategies would be adopted in the future
The results suggest that the anthropogenic emissions of SO2, Nitrogen Oxides (NOx), and PM10 used in this study are in line with both satellite and ground observations are of acceptable accuracy
Summary
With the fast growth of the domestic economy and urbanization in China, the emissions of air pollutants from coal combustion, industrial production, and transport have been increasing at an unprecedented rate over the last decade. Some studies have forecast surface ozone levels over East Asia for the year 2020, indicating that NOx (NOx = NO + NO2) and ozone would be a potential issue (Yamaji et al, 2008) These early projections suffered from poor data availability and were too optimistic about the pace of the introduction and effectiveness of environmental legislation. Based on the most recent development plan for key industries and on new information on local emission factors in China, this paper presents possible emission scenarios for SO2, NOx, non-methane volatile organic compounds (NMVOCs), NH3 and primary particles (PM), and the potential impacts of emission changes on the regional air quality in China for the year 2020. The section describes the methodology used for the energy consumption forecast, the air pollution control legislation considered and the corresponding future emission scenarios. A detailed description about the 2005 base year emission inventory is given in Xing et al (2010)
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