Projections of private vehicle ownership, energy demand and vehicular emissions – a study of metropolitan cities in India

Abstract

Urban agglomerations in India have witnessed significant growth in private vehicle ownership since the turn of this century. Intense urban road transport will have stern implications on air quality, GHG emissions, energy demands and, transport infrastructure. This study investigates the relationship between income and vehicle ownership rate for five metropolitan cities in India using a non-linear Gompertz functional framework. Medium-term scenarios of private vehicle (cars and two-wheelers) ownership, vehicle stock, energy demand and tailpipe emissions under multiple scenarios are envisaged by deriving ownership saturation based on city area and land use pattern. The results show a significant increase in vehicle stock resulting in a substantial rise in energy demand and vehicular emissions by 2035. However, the adoption of electric vehicles is expected to truncate this surge. Delhi is projected to saturate during this period while other cities are expected to saturate after 2035. The study also highlights transport policy and investment spheres to reduce private vehicle dependency.