Forecasting Private Vehicle Ownership and It Effect to Public Transportation Planning in Banda Aceh, Indonesia

Abstract

This paper analyses trends in private vehicle ownership in developing countries, namely in Indonesia. In the last few years private vehicle ownership has increased very sharply in line with economic growth, rapid urbanization growth, significant population growth and ineffective and efficient transportation system services. In 2011, Indonesia’s population had reached more than 240 million people, more than 17 million private vehicles and more than 11 million drivers. As usual, income has become a major factor influencing private vehicle ownership. However, population growth also affects ownership of the number of private vehicles. Besides other factors such as government policies, vehicle financing, household characteristics and travel behaviour. Therefore this paper tries to analyse the level of income and the level of population growth and also other factors that affect vehicle ownership in Indonesia, especially in the western part of Indonesia, the city of Banda Aceh. The city of Banda Aceh is located in the westernmost region of the archipelago, a city that is growing after the earthquake and Tsunami. Banda Aceh city has population more than 223.446 in 2010 and increase 10 per cent for the last five years. Private vehicle mode ownership is related to negative impact as well as congestions, accidents, unavailability of parking lots, noise, health problem, pollutions and other problem. Seeing the many negative effects of increasing the number of private vehicle ownership so that it becomes an arduous task for policy makers. The results of the study show that there is a strong relationship between income growth and population growth with the level of private vehicle ownership..