Projections of climate-driven biogeographical changes of benthic mollusks in the Yellow Sea and East China Sea

Abstract

Climate change influences the distribution of many marine species. To project the biogeographical changes of benthic mollusks in response to climate change in the Yellow Sea and East China Sea, ensemble species distribution models (SDMs) were applied. Ensemble SDMs performed well for ten of the thirteen selected benthic mollusks with environmental variables including temperature, salinity, current velocity, and depth. Six cold water mollusks, including bivalves Acila mirabilis, Ennucula niponica, Ennucula tenuis, Nuculana yokoyamai, Pendaloma otohimeae and Megayoldia japonica, were projected to contract their habitats and move northward in 2050s and 2100s under all of the RCP2.6, 4.5, 6.0 and 8.5 climate scenarios, with temperature being the most important environmental variable. Two warm water mollusks (bivalves Nucula tokyoensis and Leptomya minuta) were projected to lose their suitable habitats under future climate scenarios (all RCP scenarios), while two (the gastropod Cylichna biplicata and the bivalve Moerella hilaris) were projected to expand their habitats to the deeper water area. The most important environmental variable varied among warm water species between temperature, salinity and depth. This study will contribute to better understanding the marine species biogeographical changes under climate change, and thus we can better protect their biodiversity.