Potential impacts of climate change on the distribution of echinoderms in the Yellow Sea and East China Sea

Abstract

To detect potential impacts of climate change on the distribution of common echinoderm species in the Yellow Sea (YS) and East China Sea (ECS), species distribution models (SDMs) were applied. Ensemble SDMs were constructed and were in good model performance for six of the eight selected common echinoderm species. Under future climate scenarios, the brittle stars Ophiopholis mirabilis, Amphioplus depressus and the sea cucumber Protankyra bidentata were projected to expand in the southwestern areas of the YS, the ECS, and the coastal areas of the YS and ECS, respectively; the brittle stars Stegophiura sladeni, Amphiura digitula and Amphiura vadicola will likely contract their ranges in the south distribution areas and expand in the north, showing a northward movement trend. Temperature was the most important environmental variable influencing the distribution of the latter three echinoderms. Our findings will improve our understanding of the impacts of climate change on marine species distributions.