Abstract
The tropical rainforest is one of the lushest and most important plant communities in Mexico’s tropical regions, yet its potential distribution has not been studied in current and future climate conditions. The aim of this paper was to propose priority areas for conservation based on ecological niche and species distribution modeling of 22 species with the greatest ecological importance at the climax stage. Geographic records were correlated with bioclimatic temperature and precipitation variables using Maxent and Kuenm software for each species. The best Maxent models were chosen based on statistical significance, complexity and predictive power, and current potential distributions were obtained from these models. Future potential distributions were projected with two climate change scenarios: HADGEM2_ES and GFDL_CM3 models and RCP 8.5 W/m2 by 2075–2099. All potential distributions for each scenario were then assembled for further analysis. We found that 14 tropical rainforest species have the potential for distribution in 97.4% of the landscape currently occupied by climax vegetation (0.6% of the country). Both climate change scenarios showed a 3.5% reduction in their potential distribution and possible displacement to higher elevation regions. Areas are proposed for tropical rainforest conservation where suitable bioclimatic conditions are expected to prevail.
Highlights
IntroductionTropical rainforest (TR) are plant communities found in warm humid areas and include tropical rainforest and tropical sub-evergreen forest communities
The aims of the work were: (1) to obtain the potential distribution of 22 species that have ecological value and are representative of tropical rainforests under current conditions and future climate change ones, by applying the Ecological Niche Modeling (ENM) and Species Distribution Modeling (SDM) techniques through Maximum Entropy (Maxent) and Kuenm—they were chosen for their good performance, use and operation [25]; (2) to intersect the areas with the greatest potential distribution in the current and climate change scenarios, in order to identify areas of potential change of the ecosystem; (3) based on the previous objective, to propose areas for conservation of
14 cleaning and thinning the lowest number of GRs obtained for a species was 85, and Maxent performs well with less than 25 GRs [49,62]
Summary
Tropical rainforest (TR) are plant communities found in warm humid areas and include tropical rainforest and tropical sub-evergreen forest communities. Their dominant species have a perennial physiognomy, that is, they are trees that are more than 30 m high and do not change their leaves seasonally [2]. It is the richest vegetation in floristic composition and biotypes in Mexico’s tropical areas, but it currently has a limited and fragmented distribution. The rest of its successional stages occupy 1% of the country’s area; the original distribution area is unknown
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