Abstract
Invasions of alien species are considered among the least reversible human impacts, with diversified effects on aquatic ecosystems. Since prevention is the most cost-effective way to avoid biodiversity loss and ecosystem problems, one challenge in ecological research is to understand the limits of the fundamental niche of the species in order to estimate how far invasive species could spread. Trichocorixa verticalis verticalis (Tvv) is a corixid (Hemiptera) originally distributed in North America, but cited as an alien species in three continents. Its impact on native communities is under study, but it is already the dominant species in several saline wetlands and represents a rare example of an aquatic alien insect. This study aims: i) to estimate areas with suitable environmental conditions for Tvv at a global scale, thus identifying potential new zones of invasion; and ii) to test possible changes in this global potential distribution under a climate change scenario. Potential distributions were estimated by applying a multidimensional envelope procedure based on both climatic data, obtained from observed occurrences, and thermal physiological data. Our results suggest Tvv may expand well beyond its current range and find inhabitable conditions in temperate areas along a wide range of latitudes, with an emphasis on coastal areas of Europe, Northern Africa, Argentina, Uruguay, Australia, New Zealand, Myanmar, India, the western boundary between USA and Canada, and areas of the Arabian Peninsula. When considering a future climatic scenario, the suitability area of Tvv showed only limited changes compared with the current potential distribution. These results allow detection of potential contact zones among currently colonized areas and potential areas of invasion. We also identified zones with a high level of suitability that overlap with areas recognized as global hotspots of biodiversity. Finally, we present hypotheses about possible means of spread, focusing on different geographical scales.
Highlights
One of the most important human impacts on a wide range of ecosystems is the introduction of alien species (e.g. [1,2,3,4]), this being a problem of particular concern in aquatic ecosystems [5,6] with possible impacts at different levels of organisation [7]
This study aims to estimate the potential distribution of Tvv according to the conceptual and methodological guidelines proposed by Jimenez-Valverde et al [38]
The potential distribution of Tvv was estimated applying a multidimensional envelope procedure (MDE) based on both i) climatic data obtained from observed occurrences, and ii) thermal physiological data derived from experimental analyses
Summary
One of the most important human impacts on a wide range of ecosystems is the introduction of alien species (e.g. [1,2,3,4]), this being a problem of particular concern in aquatic ecosystems [5,6] with possible impacts at different levels of organisation [7]. Alien species are a non-random subset of the aquatic biota and, insects dominate the world’s freshwater ecosystems, they are almost unrepresented in the lists of alien species [8,9]. In this sense, examples of the distribution, major impacts and vectors of invasive plants, fishes, mollusc and decapods are quite numerous (see [9] and references therein). The scientific knowledge on alien aquatic insects and their effects on biodiversity and ecosystems processes is very scarce This is especially true for species considered to be of little importance for the economy and the general public [10]. Trichocorixa verticalis verticalis is one of the few strictly aquatic insects (i.e., all their life cycle stages are aquatic) that can be considered as an ‘‘alien’’ species because it has been moved outside of its native range, following the definitions of Rabitsch [11] and Strayer [9]
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