Abstract
This study aimed to project the agricultural worker population structure in Thailand to 2040. A cohort component method together with originally introduced elements were used to predict the number of total workers, agricultural workers, and non-agricultural workers by age group and sex in 2020, 2030, and 2040. Past-year data are mainly derived from national censuses. The projection results showed that the number of agricultural workers would shrink from 16.85 million to lower than 14.93 million; furthermore, at least 18.14 percent of them will be older than 60 years old. The aging problem is expected to pressure agricultural holders to rely on more machines and employees, resulting in agricultural debt per holders as much as 137 449 Baht. Thai agriculture will face serious instability if such the expensive input usage continues.
Highlights
Thailand has long been recognized as an agriculture-rich country
According to the Office of the National Economic and Social Development Board (NESDB, 2013a), in 2013 agricultural production accounted for 11.30 percent of total domestic products–GDP
The extrapolated working population percentages in 2015, 2020, 2025, 2030, 2035, and 2040, were multiplied by the number of the population in each age group and sex acquired from NESDB (2013b), to find the number of total workers by age group and sex
Summary
Thailand has long been recognized as an agriculture-rich country. According to the Office of the National Economic and Social Development Board (NESDB, 2013a), in 2013 agricultural production accounted for 11.30 percent of total domestic products–GDP. Aemkulwat (2010) asserted that labor force had grown rapidly, workers changed sectors from agriculture to manufacturing and service sectors. Since 1961 the government has implemented the National Economic (and Social) Development Plan, several plans to promote industrial sectors driving the country’s development towards an advanced economy (Talukder & Chile, 2013). This reduced the agricultural proportion of the GDP to 0.09 percent; it is questionable how many agricultural workers will be left in the future. Population projection, is regarded as an important key to efficient planning for future economic and social challenges
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