Projection of suitability for the typical agro-ecological types in Central Asia under four SSP-RCP scenarios

Abstract

Accurate assessment of integrated agro-ecological suitability (AES) and the impact of climate change on AES remains an ongoing challenge in large arid and semi-arid regions. To address this issue, the large study area was divided into different hydrothermal zones based on the water-thermal product index. Then, the dynamic weights of multiple parameters were constructed by the analytic hierarchy process (AHP) for different hydrothermal zones. A comparative analysis between different agro-ecological types was developed to obtain an integrated AES. Therefore, a modified assessment system was presented based on the hydrothermal zone, dynamic weight, AHP, weighted linear combination (WLC), fuzzy inference system, and comparative analysis. Moreover, corrected simulations of climate models projected climate impacts under four scenarios of Shared Socio-economic Pathways (SSPs) and Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs). Central Asia (CA) was selected as the concerned study area. Then, the suitability of four typical agro-ecological types (dry farming, irrigated farming, forestry, and grassland farming) in CA was evaluated during the historical reference period (1975–2014) and the future period (2015–2100) under four SSP-RCP scenarios (SSP126, SSP245, SSP460, and SSP585). The results show that the suitability of dry and grassland farming is relatively high in the third-level hydrothermal zone, and irrigated farming along rivers and forestry is relatively high in the fourth-level zone. Additionally, the unsuitable and four agro-ecological types cover about 42.02 %, 18.35 %, 19.13 %, 0.78 %, and 19.72 % of CA under SSP126 in the near term. Temporally, AES increases in the near term and then decreases in the long term. The SSP-RCP scenario analysis suggests that the high radiative forcing scenario (SSP585) benefits grassland and irrigated farming and is predicted to cause dramatic changes in climate and agro-ecological types. The modified system is a valuable tool for assessing AES in most arid and semi-arid regions, and the analysis can provide information for sustainable development.