Abstract
The aging population in China highlights the significance of elderly long-term care (LTC) services. The number of people aged 65 and above increased from 96 million in 2003 to 150 million in 2016, some of whom were disabled due to chronic diseases or the natural effects of aging on bodily functions. Therefore, the measurement of future LTC costs is of crucial value. Following the basic framework but using different empirical methods from those presented in previous literature, this paper attempts to use the Bayesian quantile regression (BQR) method, which has many advantages over traditional linear regression. Another innovation consists of setting and measuring the high, middle, and low levels of LTC cost prediction for each disability state among the elderly in 2020–2050. Our projections suggest that by 2020, LTC costs will increase to median values of 39.46, 8.98, and 20.25 billion dollars for mild, moderate, and severe disabilities, respectively; these numbers will reach 141.7, 32.28, and 72.78 billion dollars by 2050. The median level of daily life care for mild, moderate, and severe disabilities will increase to 26.23, 6.36, and 27 billion dollars. Our results showed that future LTC cost increases will be enormous, and therefore, the establishment of a reasonable individual-social-government payment mechanism is necessary for the LTC system. The future design of an LTCI system must take into account a variety of factors, including the future elderly population, different care conditions, the financial burden of the government, etc., in order to maintain the sustainable development of the LTC system.
Highlights
The topics of long-term care (LTC) and associated costs are attracting more attention from academia and governments; it is believed that an aging population will significantly increase demands for LTC and will generate significant public expenditure due to increasing disability trends [1]
This paper focuses on the disabled elderly because they represent the greatest demand for LTC; it attempts to find out how demand for LTC will evolve, and analyzes the sustainability of LTC systems such as LTC insurance (LTCI) according to the health status of the elderly and economic development in the future
The different states of the disabled elderly are based on people over 65 since they are the primary target of LTC
Summary
The topics of long-term care (LTC) and associated costs are attracting more attention from academia and governments; it is believed that an aging population will significantly increase demands for LTC and will generate significant public expenditure due to increasing disability trends [1]. One of the core issues to be addressed is how LTC demand and its costs will grow in the future. LTC is usually associated with the disabled elderly, but it applies to people of any age, regardless of the cause of the disability, e.g., traffic accident, mental illness, or congenital illness. Long-Term Care System in China and Other Countries
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