Abstract
It is of great importance to explore the future spatiotemporal dynamics of key meteorological hazard factors in Xiongan New Area, an area of great strategic significance under construction in China. Based on 6.25 km high-resolution downscaling projection data under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios, Mann–Kendall trend and linear trend were analyzed, and then stationary generalized extreme value (GEV) and time-varying GEV methods were determined to calculate the extremes of four key meteorological hazard factors with return periods of 10, 20, 30, 50 and 100 years during the projection period 1991–2050. Results show that extremes of annual maximum daily precipitation and annual maximum amount of consecutive precipitation under two climate scenarios will not increase too much. Extremes of annual maximum temperature will increase by above 1.5 °C under RCP4.5 scenario in most grids and above 1.9 °C under RCP8.5 scenario. Extremes of annual longest consecutive high-temperature days will increase by above 0.9d under RCP4.5 scenario and above 1.6d under RCP8.5 scenario. On the whole, the hazard of flood disaster will hardly show any change up to 2050, but there will be relatively higher flood hazard in Xiongxian county and its adjacent region. All regions in Xiongan New Area will face high hazard of high-temperature disaster.
Highlights
It is of great importance to explore the future spatiotemporal dynamics of key meteorological hazard factors in Xiongan New Area, an area of great strategic significance under construction in China
During the period 1991–2050, annual maximum daily precipitation with five return periods in Xiongan New Area will increase by 2.0% to 3.6% under RCP4.5 scenario, but they will hardly change under RCP8.5 scenario (Table 1)
During the period 1991–2050, annual maximum temperature with five return periods in Xiongan New Area will increase by 1.8 °C under RCP4.5 scenario and 2.3 °C under RCP8.5 scenario (Table 3)
Summary
It is of great importance to explore the future spatiotemporal dynamics of key meteorological hazard factors in Xiongan New Area, an area of great strategic significance under construction in China. Previous studies on flood disaster in Xiongan New Area mainly focused on the analysis and evaluation of historical d isasters[13], without giving enough attention to the spatiotemporal characteristics and future changes of the hazard factors of meteorological disaster. Fewer studies have carried out extreme value analysis of multiple meteorological factors from the perspective of natural disaster risk assessment. From the perspective of meteorological disaster risk assessment, this paper explores the spatiotemporal dynamics of extremes for above-mentioned four key hazard factors under two climate scenarios during projection period at the grid scale. Xiongan New Area is under construction and it is of great practical importance to assess the spatiotemporal characteristics of extreme values of key meteorological hazard factors in Xiongan New Area for building a scientific and efficient disaster prevention system
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