Projection of future carbon benefits by photovoltaic power potential in China using CMIP6 statistical downscaling data

Abstract

Solar photovoltaic (PV) systems is an affordable solution that significantly contribute to climate adaptation and resilience, energy security and greenhouse gas abatement with respect to fossil fuel electricity generation. Currently, available studies on the benefits of PV power generation only consider the electricity consumption and do not account for the possible future benefits from carbon trading under the combined impacts of pollution emissions and socio-economic. In this study, the downscaling and bias correction were applied to the Coupled Model Inter-comparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) multi-model mean data based on the historical data from the China Meteorological Administration (CMA) stations. The corrected measurements of meteorology were used to explore the PV power potential and the environmental and economic benefits offset by solar power generation under SSP126, SSP245 and SSP585 in China during 2023–2100. We found that the annual mean PV power potential across mainland China ranged from 1 to 37 Wm−2 and demonstrated a decreasing trend in the Northwest China and an increasing trend in the Southeast China. Compared to thermal power generation, electricity from solar energy will counteract the total emissions of annual mean 139.54 × 105 t CO2, 1702 t SO2, 2562 t NO X and 3710 t dust in China in SSP126 scenario. The results of variable importance assessment showed that the West Texas Intermediate crude oil price (47.77%), coal price (41.76%), natural gas price (6.65%) and gross domestic product (2.44%) contribute the most to the carbon emissions allowances (CEAs) price. Against a ‘carbon peak’ background in China, the CEA price will reach 80 CNY/t CO2 by 2030 in China, with the carbon trading value potential ranging from 20 billion to 200 billion CNY of each pixel (10 km × 10 km) by 2030. This study would have important implications for the environmental construction and future investment and construction of PV systems in China.