Projection of energy mix in China using carbon emission pinch analysis

Abstract

This work uses carbon emission pinch analysis (CEPA) method to analyze the energy mix of power generation in the Chinese power sector. It proposes to explore the optimal energy mix to achieve effective control of carbon emissions while meeting electricity demand. Under the constraint of global carbon neutrality, China’s power industry is reducing carbon emissions by transforming the energy mix. The energy mix of China’s power industry in 2030 and 2050 is analyzed according to the policy requirements and the emission reduction effect of the optimal combination. The study shows that vigorously reducing coal power, developing wind power and solar power as the main renewable energy sources, and vigorously developing the renovation and new construction of carbon capture and storage (CCS) technology for coal power are more conducive to reducing carbon emissions. The goals are up to achieve 4073.13 Mt CO2-e in 2030 and 3948.54 Mt CO2-e in 2050.