Carbon emission pinch analysis (CEPA) for planning the decarbonization of the UK power sector

Abstract

Abstract Carbon emissions pinch analysis (CEPA) was carried out for the planning of deep cuts in the carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions of the electric power generation sector of the United Kingdom (UK). The graphical CEPA technique is used to examine alternatives by which the UK can achieve or approach net zero emissions by 2050. The analysis considers constraints such as the condition of the current fleet of power plants, available renewable energy resources, and technological transitions such as carbon capture and storage (CCS) and potential entry of negative emissions technologies (NETs). Different scenarios are proposed for the planning of years 2030 and 2050, based on realistic assumptions and extension of various potential renewables. For the planning of year 2030, compared to the governmental forecasts for the same year, biomass from the UK is to be increased by 63%, while the remaining electricity generation is to be obtained from wind and solar power, which are to be increased by 25% respectively (scenario SC4-RE-WSB). For year 2050, natural gas is to be increased by six folds from the 2030 scenario, and other renewables have their respective increased generation, i.e. 50% wind generation, 80% solar generation, 50% biomass import from EU, and 60% of UK biomass. Furthermore, 51% of power from biomass plants are to be installed with CCS, making it a NET with negative emission factor. Doing this achieved the zero emission target for the UK power generation sector. Results showed that an electricity generation mix having net zero emissions for the UK is possible if sustainably grown biomass is used coupled with CCS technologies.