Projection of Climate Change and Consumptive Demands Projections Impacts on Hydropower Generation in the São Francisco River Basin, Brazil

Marx Vinicius Maciel Da Silva,Cleiton Da Silva Silveira,Francisco Das Chagas Vasconcelos Júnior,Eduardo Sávio Passos Rodrigues Martins,José Micael Ferreira Da Costa

doi:10.3390/w13030332

Abstract

Climate change impacts may influence hydropower generation, especially with the intensification of extreme events and growing demand. In this study, we analyzed future hydroelectric generation using a set of scenarios considering both climate change and consumptive demands in the São Francisco River Basin. This project will increase consumptive demands for the coming decades. Five models from the recently released Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 and two scenarios, SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5, were considered to estimate climate change projections. The affluent natural flows, regulated flows, and the hydroelectric energy generated were estimated for four multi-purpose reservoirs considering all existing and new demands. The conjunction of scenarios indicated a possible significant reduction in water availability, increased consumptive demands, especially for irrigation, and reduced power generation. Only at the Sobradinho hydroelectric plant, the decrease ranged from −30% to −50% for the period 2021 to 2050 compared to the historical period (1901 to 2000). The results can provide insights into future energy generation and water resources management in the basin.

Highlights

Extreme events such as severe droughts have increased globally in recent years [1].Such events significantly influence several sectors such as energy production, agriculture, the economy, and society
The minimum were below m3 /sand in the reservoirs to [15,61], the last positive phase ofvalues
Temperatures in scarcity the tropical they were all positive registered in the years

Summary

Introduction

Extreme events such as severe droughts have increased globally in recent years [1]. Such events significantly influence several sectors such as energy production, agriculture, the economy, and society. Hydropower generation is the most widely used renewable energy resource in the world [2]. With growing demands and modification of the current climate, increasing pressure may arise in hydropower generation and cause important changes in water management, during the occurrence of prolonged droughts. The Northeast Brazil Region (NBR) suffers from recurrent prolonged droughts, directly affecting this region’s water, food, and energy security. Since the 18th century, eight drought events persisted for more than three years [3].

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