Projection of Changes in Rainfall and Drought Based on CMIP6 Scenarios on the Ca River Basin, Vietnam

Abstract

In this study, future precipitation and drought in the Ca river basin, Vietnam, were projected based on an ensemble of 27 CMIP6 models for four climate change scenarios. The impact of climate change on precipitation and drought was investigated. Monthly precipitation observation data were adjusted using the bias correction method. To detect drought events, the Standard Precipitation Index (SPI) was employed. Changes in drought were assessed using SPI3, SPI6, and SPI12. Although the amount of annual total precipitation slightly increased, the drought events may become more severe. There is a high likelihood of increased drought intensity and severity in Vietnam due to climate change. The frequency of droughts is likely to change depending on the location and climate change scenario. We found that the frequency and severity of droughts may be altered depending on the window size of SPI. The short-term drought events will be more frequent and severe, and long-term drought events will become more severe in the Ca river basin.