Abstract

Assessment of possible changes in crops water stress due to climate alteration is essential for agricultural planning, particularly in arid regions where water supply is the major challenge for agricultural development. This study aims to project climatic water availability (CWA) and crop water demand (CWD) to outline the possible future agricultural water stress of Iraq for different radiative concentration pathways (RCPs). The ensemble means of downscaled precipitation and temperature projections of the selected global climate models (GCMs) were used in a simple water balance model for this purpose. The modified Mann–Kendall (mMK) trend test was employed to estimate the tendency in CWA and the Wilcoxon rank test to evaluate CWD alteration in three future time horizons compared to the base period (1971–2000). The results revealed a decrease in CWA at a rate of up to −34/year during 2010–2099 for RCP8.5. The largest declination would be in summer (−29/year) and an insignificant decrease in winter (−1.3/year). The study also showed an increase in CWD of all major crops for all scenarios. The highest increase in CWD would be for summer crops, approximately 320 mm, and the lowest for winter crops, nearly 32 mm for RCP8.5 in the far future (2070–2099). The decrease in CWA and increase in CWD would cause a sharp rise in crop water stress in Iraq. This study indicates that the increase in temperature is the main reason for a large increase in CWD and increased agricultural water stress in Iraq.

Highlights

  • Hydrological variations are the most impending and major impacts of anthropogenic climate change [1]

  • Salman et al (2020) [7] revealed a decrease in climatic water availability (CWA) in Iraq in recent years. They mentioned that a large increase in temperature and no change in precipitation are the main reasons for decreasing CWA in Iraq

  • The possible implications of climate variability on water availability and crop water demand were evaluated in this study

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Summary

Introduction

Hydrological variations are the most impending and major impacts of anthropogenic climate change [1]. Limited availability of arable land in arid regions has made their maximum use for cultivation, and livelihoods of the majority population depend on agriculture [4,5]. Despite the success of agriculture in arid regions, water availability is still the primary barrier to agricultural practices [6,7]. The temperature of West Asia is increasing much faster than the global average, while a substantial decrease in rainfall is perceived [14,15,16]. Iraq is one of the most affected countries in the region due to climate change [17,18,19]. A decrease in climatic water availability (CWA)

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