Historical trends in crop water demand over semiarid region of Syria

Rajab Homsi,Ghaith Falah Ziarh,Zafar Iqbal,Atif Muhammad Ali,Shamsuddin Shahid

doi:10.1007/s00704-021-03751-5

Abstract

Climate change has caused a shift in aridity, particularly in the world’s dry regions, affecting several sectors, predominantly the agricultural and water resources. This research examined the climate change effects on crop water demand (CWD) in Syria during 1951–2010. Given the lack of observed data, this analysis relied on Global Precipitation Climatology Center (GPCC) precipitation and Climatic Research Unit (CRU) temperature. Potential evapotranspiration (PET) at each grid was estimated using the Penman–Monteith model and the CWD using the FAO-56 method. The analysis revealed that CWD in Syria increased during 1981 − 2010 compared to that during 1951 − 1980. The increase in CWD was found for grapes, tobacco, barley, and cotton, whereas the maximum changes were during April and May. The most remarkable changes in CWD were for barley, between − 20 and 40 mm. It showed a decreased CWD in the south and a rise in the north (0 − 40 mm). The CWD for wheat showed a decline in most parts of the country, except in the north. The increase in CWD for barley and wheat caused an increase in agricultural water stress in the region. Agriculture planning needs to be developed according to the expected future climate changes to maintain the agricultural production in the region.

Highlights

Rapid environment changes due to unsustainable human activities have created numerous challenges across the world
This paper analyses the historical trends in crop water demand (CWD) in addition to the changes in water availability for five different crops in Syria
The gridded data sets were used for the first time to analyze the changes in Potential Evapotranspiration (PET) and CWD in the region

Summary

Introduction

Rapid environment changes due to unsustainable human activities have created numerous challenges across the world. The rise in temperature due to anthropogenic activities causing the increase in Greenhouse gases (GHG) eventually alters the rainfall distribution and intensity (Scherer et al, 2014, Wang et al, 2014, Iqbal et al, 2019, Swain et al, 2016). Frequency, and distribution are causing a rise in hydrological hazards around the world. Water stress due to less rainfall and higher temperature are found to be more frequent in arid regions compared to other hydrological disasters (Miyan, 2015). It has been projected that water stress will become more frequent and severe in the arid region in the future creating increase in crop water demand (Nam et al, 2015, Boretti et al, 2019)

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Conclusion